On Friday October 9 the Italian ‘Olive Tree’ coalition lost a confidence motion in parliament by one vote, throwing the government into disarray. It is not yet clear if and when there will be new elections because of complex rules about presidential terms.
This has attracted some comment in the British press with a suggestion that it could threaten NATO intervention in Kosova. This seems unlikely as there is a clear majority for intervention. Threats to the lira given general economic chaos seem better founded
The trigger for the confidence motion was the government’s budget for next year. The Partido Rifondazione Comunista (PRC) decided it could no longer support the government, voting 188-112 on its Central Committee to break with the government. The majority around Fausto Bertinotti was supported by the left minority of which Fourth International supporters are a part.
Rifondazione had previously debated whether it should support the government and its austerity budgets even this far. These debates saw not only the right within the party, but at times Bertinotti arguing "lesser evilism" as the basis for sticking with Prodi. They drew comfort from the fact that the last time a break was posed, it was apparently unpopular. In fact it is likely that these statistics were manipulated because the right was better organised.
However, when it came to the vote of confidence in parliament a majority of the PRC’s MPs voted with the government against the party line. This majority of MPs, together with a small minority of the PRC under the leadership of party chair Armando Cossutta have announced they are forming a new movement.
This time it was it was Cossutta who argued that anything would be better than letting in the right, raising the spectre of television magnate Silvio Berlusconi.
At the party’s political committee on October 3 he argued that his aim was "to defend the interests of the workers and not go on some wild adventure" and that this budget was more socialist than the last.
However an opinion poll in Italian paper Corriere della Sera on October 11 shows that more people support Bertinotti’s stand (5.3 per cent) than Cossutta’s (3.4 per cent)
Clearly the situation is evolving as we go to press. Livio Maitan will be speaking about these developments at the Socialist Outlook event on November 14 (Click here for details)