The political situation in Yugoslavia today is immensely complex. None of the major political forces at play want to resist capitalist restoration; none of them stand for democratic socialism. The failure of the Yugoslav model of 'socialism' has led to a struggle which takes the form of a battle between national groupings.
But this does not mean that socialists can be neutral in the conflicts taking place. The main feature of the situation is the drive by the Serbian leadership in Belgrade, under ex-Communist Slobodan Milosevic, to create a 'Greater Serbia' by subjugating the other nationalities.
Since he came to power in the Serbian CP in 1987 Milosevic has attempted to guard the position of the party elite by appealing to ethnic rivalries. The main target of this offensive is Croatia. Now, as Michele Lee explains on these pages, the federal army is in a de facto alliance with Milosevic. The army's attack on Slovenia is directly in line with Milosevic's plans to dominate the whole federation.
Every day there are new clashes in the Croatian territories bordering on Serbia. Groups of 'Chetniks' – Serbian irregulars – are fighting to drive Croats out of town of mixed Serb and Croat population.
No form of socialism is likely to come out of the present conflicts. What is at stake is the right of self-determination of the Croats and Slovenes. For socialists, their right to national sovereignty, and if they want it independence, must be absolute.
The prospect of any form of confederation has been sabotaged by the intransigence of the Serbian leadership. Socialists are never neutral on the right of self-determination for oppressed nationalities. The key aspect of the struggle today is the fight for Slovene and Croatian independence.
A particular responsibility now falls on the opposition inside Serbia itself. Milosevic is increasingly unpopular; in March there were mass strikes and demonstrations against him. However, unfortunately the opposition has not distanced itself from Milsoevic's aggressive attitudes towards Croatia; indeed many key leaders explicitly support him on this.
The attitude of political leaders in the West, including the Labour Party, has been utterly cynical, defending the integrity of the Yugoslav federation against the rights of nationalities. While this may be changing under the pressure of public opinion, there is no doubt that their key objective is a stable political framework for the restoration of capitalism.
If the expected attack on Croatia comes during the summer the whole region could experience a devastating tragedy. There could be genocide against the Croats. The Albanian army is mobilised on the southern Yugoslav border to intervene in support of the Albanians in Kosovo, also victims of Milosevic's repression.
The key now to any social progress in the region is the fight for Slovene and Croat independence, and the revolutionary overthrow of the Milosevic regime.