rumour to fellow senior managers that the Tories have abandoned any hope of winning the next General Election and are now embarked on a scorched earth policy to make life as hard as possible for a Labour THE CONCLUSION they draw is that there will be no extra cash to bail out the health authorities and NHS Trusts which face an even more desperate plight this winter than last, and which are staring down the barrel of unprecedented spending cuts from next April.
The full impact of some of these cuts would be felt after a May general election, forcing Tony Blair to take early, tough decisions on public spending. The same could also be said of education, which in many areas faces another viclous squeeze, even wnlle une meala re NO Mobilisations against cuts the lest time around Neil Murray Party wil be at the contre IHE FUTURE of the Labour of British politics in the next few years. The programme it has adopted and the course set for confrontation with the unions ensure this.
This year's Party conference again saw the leadership winning every vote, despite a few close calls. They were ably assisted by union leaders. Blatant and repeated appeals to delegates for "unity" and "not to expose divisions in front of the media" did une port sounds with agonised debate about the collapse of discipline in school classrooms.
There are other nasty skeletons buried under the Tory patio: the massive levels of borrowing incurred by Tory governments since 1979 to finance their tax-cutting bonanza for the rich and big business, for example, will make themselves increasingly and painfully obvious as a Labour government faces a soaring bill for interest payments. (See page 6)
The growing impact of the Job Seekers Allowance will also begin to take an ever heavier toll from next spring, when those currently receiving JSA are told their 6-month entitlement is ended, and the tightening restrictions on social security benefits force growing numbers acevenuno acsocrallon And, nastiest of all, and one possible reason why John Major might be less than desolate at the thought of losing the next election, is the immense problem of the Maastricht Treaty and the massive costs of meeting the criteria for a single European currency.
Ihe uneasy truce drawn between the two rival wings of the Tory Party around a formula of postponing any decision would fly apart at once if Major were to win a fifth term: and it is most doubtful whether a Tory government could survive the strains of European Monetary Some Tories and some sections of big business who favour monetary union feel that their best approach is to allow Tony Blair's party to suffer the backlash from The Party's programme is now encapsulated in New Lobour, New Life for Brron. Conference was not allowed to amend this, and was not even permitted a debate before the vote.
The programme now commits Labour to the further dismantling of the welfare state (the latest U-turn is on fund-holding for GPs), retention of the anti-union John Major sups with Neil Hamilton during better times imposing the combination of tax increases and huge cuts in public spending needed to bridge the £20 billion-plus gap between Britain's current spending deficit and that allowed under Maastricht.
With such hard political and economic questions lurking in the background, it is hardly surprising that the Tory campaign thrust has switched to an increasingly non-political 'moral' agenda, Back to Basics II, coupled with a predictable if desperate attempt by Kenneth Clarke to line-up a vote-winning, tax-cutting budget.
The problem is that Blair's team is happy to connive not only at the Tories' cynical 'moral crusade', but also at the suppression of vital information on the economy, the implications of the Maastricht Treaty and the very future of the welfare state.
While such silence may appear to offer short term electoral rewards, these are at the expense of storing up a massive crisis tor me mistew ottas ora Laoour government. From their point of view the Tory tactics may not be so crazy after all.