What's the difference between Tony Blair and David Trimble of the Ulster Unionist Party?
The answer lies partly in Blair's recent aide memoir to the Republicans telling them what they can look forward to if they declare a permanent cease-fire and hand over their weapons.
There will be "... equality of opportunity, equity of treatment and parity of esteem ...the incorporation of the European Convention on Human Rights into domestic law; a review of training opportunities for young people: a commitment to equality of opportunity in the labour market; a commitment to legislate this year on the North Report (on parades) and a commitment to implement proposals to develop a policing service capable of securing the support of the whole community...' There is also a "...recognition of the particular sensitivities of prisoner issues on all sides."
Surrender
And that's it: in return for IRA surrender there will be a specially adapted - but not much - version of the "New" Labour programme for Britain. In due course there will be "devolved government, sensible and significant North-South arrangements and a revamped relationship between the two governments".
Brisk British common sense, and in double quick time. With or without the Republicans, the peace train must leave now and pull into "Settlement Station" by next May.
Tony Blair rushed to Belfast to assure unionists that the future was Orange and that the outcome of the peace process would be the continuation of partition for generations.
In doing so he abandoned what remains of Labour's policy of unity by consent. On a day on which a victim of loyalist sectarian violence was being buried, he thanked the loyalist death squads for showing restraint. Now Blair's only difference with Trimble is that of tactics.
His reforms are much less radical than Heath's 1974 Power Sharing Executive, brought down by the Loyalists with active encouragement from what is now the Thatcherite faction of the British ruling class.
Trimble and the Unionists can be more confident of Blair's unionism than they were of Major's. As such they'll probably go along with the plan.
Nationalists are however left unimpressed, and do not believe there is any real chance of achieving "parity of esteem" within a revamped Six County State.
Nowhere will Blair's chances of reform be displayed more clearly than at Drumcree on July 6. The march at Drumcree has become the focal point of a campaign by the Orange Order for the right to strut their bigotry anywhere in the Six Counties.
Immediately after the election the new Northern Ireland Secretary, Mo Mowlam signed an order extending the legal notice required for marches from seven to twentyone days.
The catch is that this does not appply to traditional sectarian marches but will act to block any protest against sectarianism.
The events at Drumcree and the Lower Ormeau Road last year blew away the illusions sown by John Hume of the SDLP about British even-handedness. One of the main reasons for the increase in Sinn Fein's vote in the recent elections was the clear perception by nationalists that the Unionists would concede no reforms and that the RUC - and behind them the British - would capitulate to them.
Trimble's grudging acceptance of Blair's terms for the "peace" talks is based on the quid pro quo that the Orange marches will go ahead unimpeded, though with of course, some token concessions to the Nationalists.
Impossible Trimble does not want Sinn Fein in the talks, which is why he keeps demanding an IRA surrender. He knows that reform of the "To see the future only in terms of a choice between capitulation or war is a false perception. Republicans should begin to develop a programme which will win loyalist workers away from the already fractured Unionist bloc." Six County State is impossible and, like Paisley and the Democratic Unionist Party, wants to smash the Republicans once and for all.
He fully supports the Orangemen in banging their drums through Nationalist areas in order to demonstrate their ascendancy. He wants to reassure them that this will not be threatened by the talks.
Meanwhile the Republican movement is also wondering what to make of Tony's commitments. Scenes that Labour seems determined to see repeated. Nationalist youth in Derry turned out last year in protest at Orange marches that flaunt the alliance between the British government and the loyalist bigots. Undoubtedly a significant section is opposed to calling off the armed struggle just to get a new Stormont replacing the one abolished by Heath following Bloody Sunday in 1972.
These militant republicans have however a difficult choice to make. Do they follow the Adams leadership into talks in which the ending of partition is already ruled out or do they return to war?
The latter is not a serious option. A divided movement would have little chance of inflicting a military defeat on the combined forces of Britain and the South. Most likely there would be bloody military, followed by political defeat. This is in fact the outcome strongly desired by the Unionists and the ruling classes in the South and in Britain.
Republicans should not however give up their arms. The British state cannot be relied uppon to provide protection from loyalist murder gangs.
Sinn Fein leaders of residents' groups are not in principle opposed to Orange marches. What they demand is that the Orangemen seek their consent before marching.
Many in the Sinn Fein leadership now seem to think that politics in the North should be based on the notions of consent and veto.
There is an argument that if the Unionists have a veto on nationalist aspirations to a united Ireland then equally Nationalists should have a veto over what happens in relation to marches.
This traditional Republican position of non-sectarianism is abandoned and replaced with "an equality of two traditions" position. Sinn Fein speaks for the Catholics/Nationalists and the Loyalists/Unionists represent the Protestants. Followed to its logical conclusion, this kind of communalism will simply reinforce sectarianism and cement working class divisions.
To see the future only in terms of a choice between capitulation or war is a false perception.
Republicans should begin to develop a programme which will win loyalist workers away from the already fractured Unionist bloc. Participation in the "peace talks" should be limited to building mass opposition to British plans to restructure partition.
Sectarian statelet
Republicans should demand the dismantling of the sectarian statelet and totally oppose any revamped Stormont. The Six County State cannot be reformed. Its creation as a sectarian state was carefully crafted, and any attempt to make it more democratic is bound to fail.
The struggles over Orange parades provide a model for the kind of mass agitation which has in the past rocked the ruling class on both sides of the Irish Sea.
In the end, neither Trimble's Unionism or Blair's paler hue can be imposed against the mass opposition of the Nationalist people of Ireland.
Terry Conway THE ELECTION of a Labour government in May was preceded by the biggest campaign ever in the black community in Britain to make its voice heard in that arena - Operation Black Vote.
While black people have traditionally been Labour voters increasing numbers have become disillusioned with politicians cynically taking their support for granted and then ignoring their needs in office.
Along with other sections of the working class, particularly in the inner cities the black community has increasingly stayed at home.
Operation Black Vote set out to reverse that trend and had some Deportations increase best typifies the stance of the government - and its hypocrisy - has been its response to Abdul Onibiyo.
Below we print the appeal from the defence campaign which explains eloquently what has happened and what needs to be done.
"To all those opposing deportations. We write today with the shocking news that the Home Office have taken the decision not to grant entry clearance to Abdul Onibiyo. Clearly, this is a decision which places Abdul at great risk.
The family's solicitors are preparing for a Judicial Review at the High Court and when we have a date we will be calling on all our supporters to join a demonstration outside the Court.
In the meantime we need to show the home Office the huge level of support for Abdul and his family and we are asking once again for your help in faxing Mike O'Brien urgently to ask that he uses his porers of discretion to allow Abdul to enter Britain. Below is a model letter which you can copy or amend."
Please FAX your letters to Mike O'Brien at the Home Office, Fax number 0171-273-2043, quoting Abdul's Ref. number 0107625.
Please send copies of any faxes to the National Coalition of Anti-deportation Campaigns, 22 Berners St, Birmingham, B19 2DR. You can also contact the campaign on Tel 0121 554 6947 Fax 0121-507-1567 E-MAIL johno@ncadc. demon.co.uk Web Site http://www.pop tel.org.uk/ein/n cadc/ * Onibiyo family anti-deportation campaign c/o Lambeth Unison, 6A Acre Lane, Brixton, London, SW2. Phone 0171-737-2134 Fax 0171 501 9670