As we approach the anniversary of September 11, it is inevitable that the US war drums will beat louder against Iraq. At the same time, this very process has made it clear that Bush cannot count on the same level of support either as he himself had a year ago or as his father had at the time of the Gulf War.
At home prominent Republicans and generals have publicly opposed going to war without further evidence that Saddam threatens US power directly. Of course their concerns – for regional stability or for military reasons – are not the same as ours. But they weaken Bush.
Apart from Israel, Bush can rely on no one in the Middle East. Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Syria, Kuwait Qatar, Iran and even Saudi Arabia are against him – as are both India and Pakistan.
The leaders of these countries are not worried one bit about the innocent people who will suffer if there is a war. They are however concerned about there own positions of power. They know that widespread anger over the bombing in the region will be turned against their governments – particularly given the continued massacre of the Palestinian people.
The US administration is not worried by the lack of enthusiasm from most European leaders for their plans. But they are concerned about the growing anti-war feeling in Britain.
Lord Healey is not exactly some one the anti-war movement would expect to have on side, but he has clearly indicated his concern that support for US unilateralism over Iraq could not only cost Blair his job but New Labour the government.
Michael Cashman, likely to take over as Leader of the European Group of Labour MPs any day now and promoted precisely as a Blairite clone, is another unlikely doubter. He, too, is clearly worried – that anti-war sentiment in the Labour Party could lead to a new rise of the left.
Openly the US says they will go it alone if necessary – and may be in the end Bush would take that step. But the fact that his key ally, Tony Blair, is facing home-grown pressure is a real worry.
There is no doubt that the phone at number ten has been ringing off the hook – with Bush making sure that Blair is on board in his crusade. Blair has responded by making clear that he agrees that "inaction" is "not an option".
Keeping up the pressure is vital if we are to have any chance of breaking Blair from Bush. Of course we won’t get Blair to oppose the US bombings. But we want to make it as difficult as possible for New Labour to actively join in his murderous plans.
Of course we need to beware of the arguments that some people are using in these debates. But at this point we want to march and organise with anyone who opposes the war – for whatever reason.
The Daily Mirror, for example, has been useful in convincing people to criticise Blair and Bush’s plans – but it does so on the basis that there is no UN mandate to wage war against Iraq.
But if this changes, and Bush is forced to go to the UN, we can have no doubt that he will get the support he wants. The UN will in all probability eventually do the bidding of the US.
So we need to be pushing the more basic arguments against invasion of Iraq, beyond these legalistic points, if we are to keep as many of these people as possible on board if this turns out to be the situation we are faced with.
For the time being, the culmination of the hard work that anti-war activists across the country have been working towards over these last few months is to have massive demonstration on September 28 - to show our "so called leaders" that the majority are against the war.
One key in the campaign is to bring on board the trade unions. Billy Hayes, the Communication Workers Union General Secretary will be speaking at the demonstration. The CWU are sending coaches from across the country. Mick Rix from ASLEF has also been a high profile opponent of any attack on Iraq.
The Stop the War coalition is backed by growing number of trade unions, but we need local branches to affiliate and to bring their banners to the march.
This is vital as we head towards TUC and Labour Party conferences. Trades unionists are against the war – but their money is going to a party whose leaders are hell bent on bombing.
We need to make a stand – or should we say a march?
If we can get over a hundred thousand people, socialists, trade unionists, peace campaigners, anti-capitalists and the Muslim community, then we can make a real difference. The louder our voice is, the stronger we are.
This war is not in our name. It is to be waged in the name of the free market – freedom to pillage and plunder and freedom to exploit the mass majority of the world’s population.
This is not just about opposing the bombing of Iraq – this is about opposing the system that caused war in the first place.
l The Don’t Attack Iraq petition is now on-line at www.stopwar.org.uk
l If you need stickers, badges, posters or leaflets call Husniye, Lucy or Paul on 0795 123 5915.