KISANGANI, Mbuyi-Maji and Lubumbashi have fallen in quick succession to the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (APDL). ( Now they are advancing on the Zairean capital Kinshasa where residents eagerly cry, "Kabila Yaka! Kabila Yaka" (Kabila is coming! Kabila is coming!) as the AFDL leader Laurent-Désire Kabila comes to symbolise this popular rebellion.
Up to even a few months ago few dared to believe that the dictator Mobutu Sese-Seko would so soon be reduced to watching helplessly as under his very nose people protest in the streets demanding "Mobutu must xo This wily manouvrer who has praguca caireror tirty ycar, wcat ing its coffers as his private purse and its ocople as his servants is on his last legs.
Abandoned
Publicly abandoned and humiliated by his western backers (save France) and wracked by cancer, his end is not far away.
It was his own destruction of his country that accounts for the speed of his downfall. Wherever the AFDL troops arrive they are joy. ously welcomica by a locat popula tion which has for decades been abandonca by coatrai gorcramcar excepting being terrorised by his Army and secret police.
The Zairean Armed Forces (FAZ) has simply not confronted its enemy, which has minimised the number of casualties on both sides and among the civilian population.
However they continue to harass unarmed people, raping, looting and pillaging as they flee towards Kinshasa.
Many soldiers have deserted to the AFDL. where at least they get paid regularly and stand a better chance of survival.
Mobutu's regime has had to rely on the combined forces of the former Rwandan Armed Forces and its allied Bahutu militias as well as white mercenaries for any resistance that there has been.
These mercenaries from Serbia, Croatia, Russia and France are paid upwards of US $2,000 a month whereas Zairean regulars (infrequently) receive a mere US Sla month - contributing to the latter's low morale.
Bombardment
The mercenaries have been involved in front-line action in the air bombardment of civilian populations in Bukavu, Walikale and Shabunda. Even they have been frustrated by the collapse of the ZaIrcan army and bouts or dyscatch and malaria which has encouraged many to leave tae country Kabila has matched his military successfully forestalled the introduction or western oops 8s s0 called "humanitarian intervention"
tinues to favour seeing it as their While the western powers and Moburu's supporiers like banici Arap Moi in Kenya have been pressing the AFDL to cease fighting and negotiate some sharing of power with Mobutu's regime, Kabila has been intransigent in his goal.
"The only thing to negotiate" says Kabila, "are the modalities of Mobutu's departure" Unlike the opposition politicians in Kinshasa who over the years have played a game of musical chairs for the Prime Minister's post where President Mobutu is always the choreographer, Kabila has not allowed himself to be seduced likewise While western governments seck assurances that Kabila will share ZAIRE Rebels take over control in Lumumbashi: Mobutu's regime has had to rely on mercenaries power with opposition leaders like Etienne Tshisckedi, he rightly perceives them as part of Zaire's problem and not part of the solution.
Partly out of respect for Nelson Mandela and partly to moderate the mounting international pressure over the Kwandan cragce studdor in eastern Zaire, Kabila agreed to the direct talks in Gabon with Mobutu. the South African government will urge Rabia to form & transoons. government with Mobutu to pave the way for free clections, he must stick to his earlier position of Mobutu's removal from power and Kabila's Alliance has identified the need for primary health care for all, education and housing and the development of the rural infrastructure and increasing personal how the economy is to be managed in the interests of the people when foreign mining companies have control over their diamond, gold, cobalt and copper concessions ... the cleansing of all aspects of Moburuism from the political system. nomic programme have become clearer in recent weeks.
As a coalition its common manifesto is influenced by the nationalist ideas of Patrice Lumumba from the 1960s but shorn of the Marxist colouring that Pierre Mulele and even Laurent Kabila once gave it.
There are two planks in their programme which Kabila in an echo of his radical past recently called a "national democratic revolution"
"Redemocratisation" means a western liberal democratic system consumption. What remains unclear is precisely and separation of powers between an executive presidency, legislature and judiciary, well as full freedom of the press, association and assembly.
Also reconstruction and development, which has been described as the "return to the Congolese population of con trol of the production, distribution and consumption of their land and mineral resources".
in particular the Allance has identified the need for primary health care tor all, education and housing and the development of the rural infrastructure and increasing perWhat remains unclear is a tion and precisely how the cconomy is to be managed in the interests of the people when foreign mining companies have effective control over their diamond, gold, cobalt and copper concessions and their exploitation.
Uganda model
Some speculate that Kabila will follow the Ugandan mode.
of his friend and ally Yoweri Museveni where political parties are banned (excepting the liberation movement) and a market capitalist economy is encouraged under authoritar.
ian political leadership.
It would be a mistake to think that Zaire with its sheer size, ethnic and political diver.
and alter the legacy of Moburu's dictatorship will be amenable to this system of government.
What should be institutionalised in the short term is transparency, accountability and participatory government within genuine federalism.
Any new regime must permit the organisations which emerged in the 1990s as part of the partial democratization full freedom. These include the women's and religious associations as well as peasants' and workers' unions, student and youth groups, and so on.
All of which is still some way into the future.
The old regime will not abandon Kinshasa as easily as they did other towns.
Moburu recently appointed a senior army officer Major-General Likulia Bolongo as Prime Minister, the third incumbent in as many months.
He hopes that the Zaircan Armed Forces will not desert one of their commanding officers and may even be tantalising toem with toc prospect of direct military rule if they can face down the Alliance forces.
Much of the opposition in Kinshasa is now reconciled to Kabila's forces taking control and is leading a campaign of non-violent resistance against the state of emergency that has been declared Western troops from the United States, France, Belgium and Britain have been steadily building up in neichbouring Congo. Gabon and off-shore near Kinshasa, apparThis last leg of the military campaign may be the most difficult yet.
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