Geoff Ryan Less than a week after its expected the election victory. the governDemocratic Opp- ment was laced by protests and demonstrations over its handling or the worst-ever easily won the UN condi energy crisis. Blackouts have December 23 elections, with hit schools, factories and hospitals, as well as homes, 176 seats in the 250 member Serbian Parliament and 64 which have been left without percent of the popular vote. electricity for between 8 and This gives DOS more than 18 hours a day. the two-thirds majority Recently resumed Russian needed tional changes in Serbia. enaci constitu- gas supplies have been insut- ficient to head off the crisis.
Milosevic's Socialist Party People protested by turning won 37 seats (14%), the far over rubbish bins and using right Vojislav Seselj got 23 (9%) Radical Party of them as barricades on tram lines forcing traffic to and the Serbian Unity Party standstill. Traffic lights were (founded by Arkan) won 14 out as well, due to the black(5%). outs.
The Yugoslav Left, headed The new government also faces major difficulties in its relations with the other comless than the 5% needed for representation in Parlia- ponent of Yugoslavia, Montenegro. In fact the vicment.
tory of DOS has hastened, The election campaign was very low-key, and only 58 rather than prevented, the percent of the 6.5 million final break-up of Yugoslavia. electorate turned up at the The government of Montepolls. Moreover, despite the negro demanded, and received, the sacking of sevscale of their electoral defeat, Milosevic's Socialist Party eral senior Yugoslav military remains the largest group in officials based in the republic as well as the pro-Serbian Parliament.
This will take on consider- 7th Battalion.
Freed from the threat of able significance when the 18 member DOS coalition military intervention, Monbreaks up - and it is certainly tenegrin president Milo a question of when, and not if Diukanovic then stepped up the motley coalition, united calls for independence. At only by hostility to the end of December, his Milosevic, falls apart. government endorsed a plan that would give it greater autonomy from Serbia.
The proposal envisages Yugoslavia as a loose union of Serbia and Montenegro, each with their own seat in the United Nations, but with a common army, monetary and financial policies.
Four ministers from the People's Party walked out of the ruling coalition in Montenegro in opposition to the proposals, reflecting the deep divisions in Montenegro over the issue of independence.
However, it is still likely that the plan will be endorsed by the Montenegrin parliament.
Montenegro plans to propose the deal to Serbian representatives by mid-January.
Of the talks with Serbia fail, and this seems likely, as Serbian President Vojislav Kostunica and PrimeMinister designate Zoran Djindjic are opposed Montenegrin independence, president Diukanovic will hold an independence referendum by mid 2001.
Serbian obstruction would almost certainly increase the numbers of Montenegrins in favour of independence.
The issue of Montenegrin independence does not just affect relations between the two republics. Zoran Djindjic certainly recognises that Montenegrin independence would almost certainly result in the loss of Serbia's claim to restore its sovereignty in Kosova.
And Kosovan independence would increase demands bv the majority Albanian population in the Preshevo Valley area of southern Serbia for the region to be reunited with Kosova.
Increased clashes between Albanian guerrillas and Serb police led Djindjic to visit the Kosova border along with Yugoslavia's top general, Nebojsa Pavkovic.
Part of Diindjic's strategy is to use the international support enjoyed by the new government to persuade NATO forces to crack down Albanian militants. Current evidence suggests he has met with some success.
However, this a high risk strategy for both the Serbian government and western governments who, with the partial exception the United States, remain hostile to independence for Kosova and Montenegro.
There are limits on the extent to which NATO Playing to the nationalist gallery- and suiting imperialist interests: Kostunica troops can intervene against Albanian guerrillas in the border region without encountering hostility Kosova itself.
the current dynamic of most western governments is clearly to tavour Serbia. This can be seen in the new rules drawn up for the November in Bosnia by the head of the OCSE mission, Robert Barry.
While the institutions of the Croat-Muslim Federation have to reflect the multi-ethnic nature of Bosnia-Hercegovina, this does not apply in Republika Srpska.
For example, while the President and Vice-President of the Federation may not be of the same ethnic group, in RS no such requirement exists. Serbs can, and do, hold both posts.
The result of the changes was convince many Bosnians that western governments would be willing to allow RS to secede from Bosnia and join Serbia.
Not surprisingly, therefore, the elections in RS were won by the hard-line nationalists of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) founded by Radovan Karadzic a victory welcomed by Kostunica and Djindjic who see the SDS as their natural allies. Equally unsurprisingly, in Croat areas the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) was able to use apparent western secession of RS to push its own claims for secession and unity with Croatia. Only in Muslim areas, and particularly urban areas, was there an increase in support for parties supporting united, multi-ethnic Bosnia. This continues a trend we noted in previous Bosnian The continued dominance of nationalist parties in RS and among Bosnia's Croats is a direct result of western policies towards Bosnia since Dayton, which accept the de facto partition of B-H.
As western governments turn more and more towards Kostunica and Djindjic, any pretence of supporting multi-ethnic Bosnia is likely to disappear.