Analysis of developments in the Good Friday agreement in Ireland depend as much on observing what Is not said as in observing what is said.
Right now the dog that is not barking is the unionist dog. The reason is quite simple. Despite great inventiveness in describing themselves as victims, the unionists are finding great difficulty in finding anything to complain about.
The Good Friday agreement itself represented a massive victory - Republican defeat, restabilisation of the sectarian state in the north, the return of the regional Stormont assembly and the of state. insertion of an undemocratic unionist veto at the heart of political life in both parts of The gains since then have been immense. It has been established that the agreement is itself subordinate to overall British control, subject to suspension at the boards.
Democracy, Irish section arms issue" - of the Fourth international whim of the British secretary Within this unionism is dominant. Trimble is their supporters. able to ban Sinn Fein mempers trom cross-boraer meetings and effectively put selective parts of the agreement into cold storage.
The Patten commissions proposals for a wide-ranging is no longer on offer. if largely cosmetic retorm of the RUC have in essence been reduced to a proposal to change the name, with the hint of background influence for nationalist politicians in the police The British and Unionists are united with the support of the national- the 'nationalist family of the ists in asserting that the SDLP and Dublin governphysical surrender of the ment in attempts to win a republicans in the near little more from the British in future is a central compo- the implementation of the nent of the agreement. new arrangements.
It's in this context that the What's left is the unimpleIRA new year statement mented British promise to "committed to resolving the end the mass occupation of must be seen. South Armagh. The statement in reality on Blair to take direct indicates a willingness to go responsibility for "demilitariahead with the destruction sation". This is just a variaof the IRA arms while look- tion of a familiar cry about ing for further concessions "secureocrats ". to justify the humiliation to This insane theory holds that a small group of civil In a familiar pattern the servants and intelligence republicans call for progress operatives are acting against on policing, ignoring the fact the interests of the British That That Iccue nas now state and that they are able been resolved in the sense to block these interests. that the original Patten deal What is involved in the theThey ory is simply the collapse of have in fact rowed behind republicanism into bourgeois Trimble: his opponents appear to be running out of things to complain about nationalism. Nationalist ideology ignores all Irish history and claims that Britain's "real" interest is peace in Ireland and that nationalist lobbying can persuade them to act reasonably.
Nationalist Ireland has The IRA call done its lobbying. Now New labour is laying down the law in a statement indicating that negotiation on the RUC is finished. It's time for the SDLP and Dublin to support the RUC, for the nationalists to take their place on the police boards and for Sinn Fein to keep quiet.
Haggling on South Armagh will of course bring some concessions, but nowhere near enough to obscure British victory and Republican defeat. The republicans could of course reject the whole deal - but how often have their supporters waited for that? The continued harassment of political opponents in the republican writers group is an indication of where the movement is going.
The new Northern Ireland will swim into view. There will be pockets of patronage for the catholic bourgeosie, but overall it will look strikingly like the old British colony.
Questions will remain. Will the unionists tolerate even a tame Sinn Fein in government? What will happen when the nationalist workers find they are not included in the brave new world? These are question for a new resistance - not for the old.