Where is Sri Lanka Going?
Sri Lanka is heading for a General Election on October 10. The People's Alliance government of Prime Minister Chandrika faces a weakening of its position, probably resulting in a hung parliament.
Not only has opposition to the government's austerity programme increased, but one of the parties in the People's Alliance has jumped ship.
A hung parliament would weaken the ability of the Chandrika government to pursue its war against the Tamil people as well as making it more difficult to push through its neo- liberal agenda of privatisation and deregulation.
Vallipuam Thirunavukkarasu, editor of the Tamil paper of the Nawa Samasamaja Party (NSSP, Sri Lanka section of the Fourth International) looks at the way the situation is unfolding.
Chandrika's government is on the horns of a dilemma - which of course is one of its own making. There is a monumental gulf between what she pledged in the run up to the 1994 election and what has materialised on the ground today.
Economic growth has plummeted from 6% in 1994 to 3.7% in 1999 with further decline and the concomitant fall in living standards very much on the horizon. The price rises of many vital services : water, gas, diesel fuel, kerosene oil, electricity, telecommunications, represent ominous trends.
Matters are made still worse by the recently announced 4% de facto devaluation of the rupee. The rupee has been losing value almost daily for several years now by its being floated against a basket of some 20 currencies. The cumulative devaluation against the US dollar between 1994 and 2000 is 65%.
On the Tamil national question, Chandrika has failed miserably "to concede the rights of the Tamils and honourably withdraw the armed forces from the North East" as she declared at a mammoth meeting in Nugegoda on the eve of the 1994 General Election.
The People's Alliance election manifesto pledged that the new government would convene a Constituent Assembly to enact a new constitution which would incorporate a solution to the Tamil national question based on extensive devolution of powers.
Now a beleaguered President Chandrika is engaged in a sham dialogue with the United National Party (UNP), the main opposition Party, supposedly to resolve the Tamil national question. By and large this is a grand pretence.
Chandrika had initiated talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) soon after she came into power, but these inevitably failed because there were no political proposals on the table. The lack of seriousness with which the government took the process was shown by the low-key delegation they sent to the talks - consisting only of officials.
As time went on, the government and the LTTE gradually began trading accusations and the hitherto deeply held mutual mistrust came to the fore. Thus, the cessation of hostilities agreement that had been reached on January 8 1995 ended on April 19 1995 with the attacks launched by the LTTE on the ships in the Trincomalee harbour.
THE CHANDRIKA GOVERNMENT then embarked on its so--called "war for peace" in July 1995, and then commenced what is dubbed as "Eelam war III" - yet with no package for a political solution being presented by the government.
Then on August 3 1995, for the first time the government came up with a package for establishing regional councils, thus designating Sri Lanka as a 'Union of Regions' as against the present unitary nature of the state.
The package was generally welcomed as a good move that could lead to a positive outcome.
However there was a backlash against the proposals from the Sinhala-chauvinist militarist lobby and the government considerably diluted the package in response .
The net result was that even Tamil parties like the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP), which have been consistently supportive of the government, .could no longer back it
THE GOVERNMENT has clearly banked on defeating the LTTE militarily. Thus the war has become ever more intensive, leaving a further trail of death and destruction, mass arrests and detention, rape, murder and population displacement.
There is scant delivery of day to day essentials, particularly of food and medicine, for the Tamil people in the areas controlled by the government. Death due to starvation is rife in parts of the country controlled by the LTTE, especially the Vanni sector. Thousands of Sinhala soldiers from poor peasant families have had to perish in this genocidal war.
The government celebrated the recapture of Jaffna from LTTE control in December 1995 with pomp and pageantry, but over time has had to face a number of serious military reverses, culminating in the fall of the sprawling 12,000-strong military complex at Elephant Pass.
Chandrika felt intensely nervous that the LTTE would also overrun the biggest Northern military base at Palaly. Feverishly considering the dismal prospect of withdrawing the 35,000-strong garrison there, she frantically sought and received highly sophisticated military hardware from Pakistan and Israel including kfir bombers.
Thus the military budget of Rs.52 billion (US$700 million) for 2000 has ballooned up to Rs. 79 billion (US$1053 million). And what goes on now is desperate and indiscriminate air strikes, killing hundreds of civilians in the Jaffna and Chavakachcheri areas during recent weeks.
India has declined to offer any military support but pledged humanitarian assistance and mediation if both sides accept its role.
Norway - which had already been endeavouring to play a role on this question - paused for a while with the serious turn in the military situation and the concerns expressed by India. Norway seems content to play an auxiliary co-ordinating role with its spokesman Eric Solhaim shuttling between Colombo and New Delhi.
The United States has also urged that a solution based and maximum devolution with a recent visit by Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering. A Palestine-type half- baked solution could well be on their agenda.
Draconian laws have meanwhile been promulgated, and a tight censorship clamped down and papers such as the Sunday Leader, Irida Peramuna (Sinhala) and Udayam (Tamil) have been banned.
Now, under cover of the war 'to save the country' the infamous defence levy has been upped from the original 1% to 6.5% and attempts are being made to rob the workers of 2 days' pay.
Gas for cooking which was Rs. 250 per 13kg unit in 1995 has almost doubled in price today with the latest steep increase of Rs. 105 in May.
With the monopoly it enjoys, Shell is playing hell, and President Chandrika has defended it to the hilt. The price of diesel fuel has once again been upped by 5% sending the cost of living further up. To cap it all, the Central Bank then announced the de facto devaluation of the rupee by 4%, spelling further misery to wage-earning, working masses.
Consequently, there is a resurgence and intensification of working class struggles not only against the rising cost of living, and against privatisation but also against the war.
Recent joint and separate campaigns launched by the Janata Vimukthi Terramuna Party (JVP), NSSP, Muslim United Liberation Front (MULF), Lake House workers, Sampath Bank Workers and others are gaining momentum.. The Lanka Samasamaja Party (LSSP) and the CP are inextricably intertwined with the People's Alliance government despite all its anti working class policies.
The JVP, which has been committed to common campaigns is lately involved more and more in their own independent campaigns particularly against privatisation.
The need of the hour is a strong left front Thus the NSSP and the New Left Front have a very big role to play to mobilise the progressive, democratic opposition forces especially in the face of the war mongering. racist Sinhala Urumaya working overtime to raise its ugly head.