President Rifaat al-Assad, in The sudden death of Syrian exile in Paris since 1984President Hafez al-Assad has Although sudden, Assad's left the Syrian regime in dispected, and key players had array, Isracl's hand in the danger- already been jostling for OUS being played posstion. Less than & monta before, Mahmoud al-Zoubi, between the two states.
Whether this leads to a war. who had been prime minisor to the imposition of a US.
dismissed carlier this year in backed "peace" treaty a power struggle with Bashar, depends largely on whether Bashar died in mysterious circumSaUS swiftly establish his author- Call stances. Hy In the first dynastic Triumvirate republic in the Middie East, According Syrian dissident and the arrogance sources, the real seat Israel's trigger-happy gener- of als. Vice-President Abd al-Halim In either case, the outcome Khaddam i Chief Staff Mustafa Tlas, and Foreign faction to Syria's population. autoontarian arctatorsnip as the best way to maintain Delay doc tentac The confusion Assad's legacy is an impovregime is demonstrated by crished state tens of thousands of political prisoners, a Assad's death, the implica- corrupt administration, and tions of which were being #cowed avocate acmor alised opposition. Syria has the Syrian opposition, sev- few natural resources. cial days octolciwas ol 40% of the population are cially confirmed. farmers, dependent on inadDuring this time, prepara becoming increasingly polluted from oil refineries, and the constitution to reduce the minimum age for a presi.
posed Ilisu dam the Bashar's age), and to neu- Euphrates in Turkey. tralise the expected oppost- The Outs tion from Hafez al-Assad's while it is believed that huge brother, the former Vice sums from the oil refining industry are pocketed by the clique around Assad This is a situation which Isracl will gleefully exploit. Most Israeli welcomed recognising him as Israel's after peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, the withdrawal from and neutralisation of Arafat and the PLO "We shed tears", crowed popular daily Yediot Ahronor. rid of its here Meet, part Barak's ner, can be expected to push There are increasing sins conflict with Syria. that, despite rhetoric, Barak has no intention of withdrawing from the Golan Heights, occupied in Expansion of the Qatzrin industrial zone, and the alloand the sands of new homes for settlers, intention to remain on the Heights.
Settlers
The Jewish population of the arca already exceeds the Arabs Syrian (most of whom were expelled in 1967); the new homes sug Kos an increase of some our in the next few years. Unlike the West Bank, most these settlers consider themselves Marxist Hashomer Hatzair movement, now subsumed into Meretz.
significant contribution to Israel's econ• omy; in particular, most of the drinkable wine produced by, and exported from, Israci, comes from the Golan.
Water
The area is also rich in water resources, with most of the headwaters of the Jordan, waich proviacs a large pro portion of Israel's domestic and exported water.
Last year, after an effective Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream pulled out of a deal to use Golan water in its products.
Although Israel justifies its continuing occupation grounds, the real reason is the control of these resources The Golan in Syrian hands would pose no real military threat Israel. Recent reports suggest that, if Israel forced to withdraw, they would insist that Golan is not merely demitarisco, the Syrian side by a cordon of nuclear mines.
Israel is also demanding tech Celebrations at Irrael's withdrawal from Lebanon appear nos just premature but missing the point equipment from the US, in - which is only some miles from Israci's northern leaders are clear about their intentions towards Syria. Two days after withdrawal from Lebanon, deputy defence taster coet • Snch told Israel Radio: "The withdrawal from Lebanon is only a stage in the realization of the gencral plan, which is to political goals regarding Syria; the critical moments of the where the hatred towards Israel stamped in its blood, and therefore it rendered endless help in weapons and armaments to the Hizbulla.
"Yesterday a difficult and dangerous reality was crearous tine pull out and the collapse of SLA), but this is only temporary, because it is only one phase of the war.
"It is a situation which will amended future, (not immediately, if not with the aid of the international community, then by force - great force. The circumstances in y military have not yet arisen." This was Hardie's first This clear threat has been repeated less explicitly by Bashar al-Assad voluntarily "peace" Isracl's 318aaC3 terms, or we will force him to do so.
Nobel prize
Many western commenta Syrian SORC activists, hope and believe that Bashar will ease the authoritarian regime imposed by his father, reach with Israel, and open Syria to western investment. Clinton, hoping Cace prize and desperate for a last foreign policy success before he steps down, will be pushBut, even if Bashar was able this would be disastrous for WHose are Col would be devastated by western intervention.
Barak, meanwhile, in pawn to the religious parties, background ("the most decorated soldier in Israel's history", as fond of repeating), will see no reason regime, capable of mobilis. ing the masses, the choice for Syriais either surrender, or war and defeat. something about it?
cation of thousands of acres approval of thou.