mark a major sea change: not just for Croatia but for the Balkans as a whole. But you would hardly understand this from the scant coverage in the British media, reports THE ELECTIONS resulted in victory for the SDP (Social Demo. Communists of Croatia) and HSLS (Croatian Social Liberal Party)
Although their victory was not unexpected the margin certainly compared to only 40 for the HDZ. Yet a few days before polling the ruling HDZ. (Croatian Democratic Union) was expecting to salvage sufficient votes to form part of a coalition government. Now there is To chance on!
The most likely outcome is coalition of the SDP HSIS bloc with a smaller opposition alliance which won 24 seats. Between them these two blocs will hold over two house Moreover they are likely to have the support of the wive representatives of national minorities. (Serbs, representative each. Czechs and Slovaks share one representa have while wermans. Austrians, Jews, Ruthenians and Ukrainians The far-right coalition of the HSP (Croatian Party of Rights) and the cratic Union) won 4 seats, polling particularly strongly in Slavonia he desire deed follows the death of President Tudi. ber 10 1999.
Tudiman's death did not produce any sympathy vote to halt the declining popularity of the HDZit merely postponca the cicctorat defeat for a few weeks. Presidential 24, though the two round system means the outcome is unlikely to be Th of belien Brazen i dea between Budisa, leader of the HSIS and HIDY. can didate Mate Granic. Granic was identified with opposition to some regime, and this may stand him in good stead.
Reduced powers Whoever wins the Presidential Presidency are likely to be reduced. The autocratic methods developed by rudiman will certainiy oc cur The election was a major triumph for Ivica Racan, leader of the SDP and former leader of the League of It was Racan, contrary to many myths on the British left, who took oc tirst sicos towards inacpendence for Croatia. Under his leadership sac sonce stammists gave World News reconstituted themselves as a social The SDP (and even more so the HSL.S) are pro-market. The new government will try to improve Croatia's relations with the west, with a view to seekink micmoctois of the European Unior There will certainly be no attemp However, the SDP will probably attempt to introduce social policies to ofiset aspects of the impact of the Such moves would likely win the support of the IDS-DDI (Estrian Democratic Parliament) which is the dominant force in Istria, with support amongst both the Croat Most importantly the new government is likely to jettison much marked the Tudiman era. This will change Croatia's relations with its Serb population. There are already signs that Serbs who fled Croatia return.
The election result has been warmiy wcicomca in bosnia wacre the former HDZ regime was able to mobilise sections of the Croat population in support of its dream of Greater Croatia, with disastrous CONSUC This may well be the last election in Croatia in which Bosnian Croats diaspora may also be deprived of the right to vote in future elections. HDZ (95 percent in some estimates) this will have longer term imprications for uture ciccuon results.
Division
The new regime will certainly be less influenced by hard-line nationalists from Hercegovina. As a result continued division of Mostar is likely to come to an end and the Croat community participate paan being an arm of the Bosnian politics, rather Croatian state intervening Bosnia on behalf of Zagreb.
The ludiman regime systematically refused to hand over Croats accused of war crimes. This too will The change in regime will also have a deep impact in Serbia. No The death of Tidjman brought no real sympathy pote doubt the Milosevic regime will as it did even before the war.
However this is much less credtble than was the case with Tudiman, though even in his case it was Tudiman was certainly an autocratic, Croatian nationalist who freдислиу assa for the cstasac state but by no stretch of the imagination did he actually reintroduce The weakness of the new govern. ment is undoubtedly its support for capitalism and its desire to enter the EU. Croatian workers, of whataction to defend themselves against roharack police Nevertheless the election victory of the SP does open up enormous The hold of nationalist politics is significantly weakened. In particumuch less secure That is a step forward for all the • The abore figures, based on a tratul through internet sites, are provisional.