Belfast A DEFINING moment in recent Irish history was the massive vote in tavour of •British government's proposals for a political settlement in May.
One of the forces delivering this vote was an "independent" non"Yes" campaign.
before Xmas the campaign pub- Pally lished its accounts.
The details said everything about the nature of the Good Friday settlement. Top contributor was billionaire speculator George Soros, followed by Southern capinterests in the North.
The was led by Quintin Oliver - seen as representing the extensive community sector in the North. At the time the campaign claimed to be independent of the British, but it has since emerged that they were provided with extensive research and intelligence data by the British government.
This says all that needs to be said about the Irish Peace process established and bankrolled by imperialism, supported by Irish capital and fronted by commuIlly organisations Inar have grown up not as a result of struggle but from years of the disbursement of pacification funds by the British and the EU.
The only basis on which this could be seen as progress would be if one were to endorse the idea that had now become a force for good.
This is exactly what many supporters of the peace process profess to believe, and is at the foundation of current republican Stepping stone In this scenario, the cross-border bodies to be set up following the agreement are a stepping stone to a united Ireland.
In transitional period the re-established Stormont assembly will be forced to democratise the North.
This will all happen because imperialism, if not defeated, was at least held to a draw by the republican military campaign - the evidence being that that there is no demand for prior decommíssioning (the formal surrender of arms) written into the agreement. Unfortunately these are not ideas that would long survive the light of day nor any honest debate, so from all sides comes the blind assertion of reform and progress, punctuated by strange silences when the long periods of the Just Andre stasis in the process are broken by movement - a movement which is always below yesterday's bottom line. And so it was again. The republican leadership, who spent their time in the run-up to the May referendum explaining their members that the deal was not of their making, and that they were endorsing it with reluctance, spent the rest of the year as the only defenders of the agreement, which froze on all of these issues. In the run-up to Xmas the proposals for implementation of the agreement were finally announced. The republican's bridge to a united Ireland - six cross-border bodies - proved only suitable for a horse-laugh: Inland waterways, food safety, trade and business development, special EU programmes, Language. [in which the Irish language is equated with an 'ulster-scots' dialect] and Aquaculture and marine matters. Much stress has been Ten laid on the Trade and departments, and EU bodare to be shared ies by repubout between the licans and nationalist parties. The equality politicians.
They argue department is that these nowhere to be are the foundation of seen. movement to Irish unity. A glance at the formal agreement shows that these bodies covered only specific issues -for example monitoring the interest rate subsidy - and even then represented only agreement to. talk about them. Another central claim of the reformist programme advanced by Sinn Fein is that the North will be democratised on the road to a united Ireland. The expression of this was to be an equality Republican leaders who at first reluctantly endorsed it are now the only eager defenders of the agreement body.
The new stage of the agreement lists ten departments, to be shared out between the parties with tWo ministerial SenTS reserved for Sinn Fein. The equality department is nowhere to be seen. In fact the whole structure of the parliament isn't about equality but about sharing sectarian privilege. In any case the British will hold the levers of power in the state.
A new element has been added to the agreement - the other parties have made it crystal clear that the republicans must surrender This demand has no military meaning but tremendous political significance In a carefully choreographed bit of playacting this necessity was the pro-British death squads, immediately following the parties signatures ture of the actual mechanisms at work and the possibility of capitalist stability rising from it.
One issue is the extremely volatile mixture of reaction and sectarianism represented by unionism. Even the ten times diluted agreement, which represents 98% of their own demands, was rejected by the unionist Assembly party and had to be taken back for a further tweak to the right. David Trimble had to be awarded the Nobel prize having conceded nothing and capaonly of jibes at the republicans.
The fact that these are the moderate unionists - and the other rightward drift in the process, one that has operated from the beginning and will continue to operate.
This is unlikely to destabilise things as the British have no problems at all in shrugging their shoulders and asking for more concessions from Dublin and the SDLP In any case the unionists are already conciliated to many aspects of the agreement - all of them intend to hold on to the Stormont assembly like grim death. UK unionist Bob McCartney lost control of the other members of his parliamentary party when he suggested withdrawal.
What is also clear is the growing authority of Dublin and the northern nationalists in heading the nationalist family. It is quite clear that Sinn Fein were kept well out of the loop during negotiations and knew only just as much about the proposals and the level of agreement between Trimble and local nationalist leader Mallon as they were told. Many of Sinn Fein's statements were therefore wildly inaccurate. It is also significant that it was Fulletion A column from Democracy, Irish section of the Fourth International Dublin that vetoed including agriculture in the cross-border bodies - far too important to include in something that is meant to ensure a partitionist capitalist stability based on the status quo.
The Northern SDLP are quite unhappy as their share of the sectarian cake is eaten into, but they will not allow anything to threaten the deal.
Finally there is the stability of the republican base. An IRA convention was held, and refused to agree to the surrender of arms. It appointed a hard-line militarist as chief of staff. The suspicion is however that the Adams leadership has won greater flexibility and that the new leadership stand willing to enforce further concessions by Sinn Fein.
The reality is that the militarists have failed utterly as an opposition, have no alternative programme, have accepted the return of a partitionist assembly and simply represent a sentiment that has to be talked around.
Imperialism won a major victory in May. The fact that the agreement nowhere addressed the causes of conflict means that there are constant shocks and strains that will always be a feature of it.
The demobilisation of the republican base and the option of the labour bureaucracy …COin support of the deal means that regroupment is likely to be a slow and difficult process in the North.
However much of its stability from the nationalist side rests on the authority of the Irish bourachieved on the back of percep- geolsie - an authority recently tions of a "Celtic Tiger" economy, and likely to face sharp challenges from southern workers in the coming period. The Real Irish Peace Process available (£6 plus 70p p&p) from Socialist Outlook, PO Box 1109 London N4 2UU
underlined by the surrender of a few weapons by the LVF, one of
Many of the details surrounding the agreement give a clear pic-
50% are even more reactionary - means that there will be a steady
!OUT NOW! The Real Irish Peace Process
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