About 85,000 people in the South of Ireland voted against the Stormont Agreement, a surprisingly high figure given the fact that all the main parties including Sinn Fein supported it.
A vote against by Nationalists, North or South, was presented in the media as a vote for war, even though the "No" campaign in the South was based on maintaining the 1994 Cease-fire. Clearly there are still a substantial number of people in the South who do not concede the right of the British to rule a part of Ireland and who don’t believe the Agreement will bring peace.
However, the scale of the defeat of republican and radical forces in Ireland should not be underestimated.
Of course Sinn Fein will continue with its political manoeuvres to further divide the Unionists and to get the (limited) All-Ireland bodies going. There will be a long dance over surrendering IRA weapons.
But the concessions already made in accepting partition to bring them into the mainstream of bourgeois nationalist politics, along with the SDLP and Fianna Fail in the South.
The main desire of both these parties is to reach an accommodation with imperialism – in the form of the British State. The Stormont Agreement offers the SDLP and the Catholic bourgeoisie which it represents, the promise of a small share of the spoils of government, of which it was deprived for 50 years by the previous Stormont regime.
Dublin feared the threat of destabilisation from Republicanism spilling over from the North. It is no accident that the SDLP has rebuffed Sinn Fein appeals for an electoral pact and is making overtures to Trimble’s Unionists; they fear the Nationalist working class, highly politicised and with expectations of a "peace dividend".
The benefits of such an alliance are mirrored on the Unionist side.
Sinn Fein’s objective of replacing the SDLP as the main nationalist party looks increasingly far fetched. Since the Agreement they have been under pressure from the SDLP (as well as the British and the Unionists) to go further and make even more concessions.
There will be pressure on the Garvaghy Road residents to allow this year’s Orange march to go ahead unopposed: the apparent reasoning is to save David Trimble from Paisley and the substantial Unionist minority opposed to the deal.
Another example of this way of thinking is the advice to Sinn Fein supporters to use their 3rd and 4th preferences in the Assembly elections in support of the Unionists.
The self-declared role of Sinn Fein in the new Assembly and in the devolved government will be to represent "its people" while the Loyalist working class will be (at least partially) represented by the Progressive Unionist party and the Ulster Democratic Party.
In this way the Agreement simply cements in place the sectarian divisions that have been so carefully fostered for so long. Partly because of its (fatal) alliance with bourgeois nationalism and mostly because of its politics, there is no chance of Sinn Fein breaking out of this sectarian mould and making common cause with Loyalist workers.
The problem for Sinn Fein – and the opportunity for socialists – is the unavoidable fact that the new Stormont has almost nothing to offer Sinn Fein’s working class base.
The Agreement simply cements in place the sectarian divisions that have been so carefully fostered for so long … The problem for Sinn Fein and the opportunity for socialists is the unavoidable fact that the new Stormont has almost nothing to offer Sinn Fein’s working class base.
Reform, let alone disbandment, of the RUC is very unlikely. Orange parades will still go through Nationalist areas, and the much discussed all Ireland bodies which Sinn Fein pretend are a bridge to Irish unity, will be blocked at every turn by the Unionist veto.
Nationalist and Loyalist workers may find themselves fighting over the crumbs which fall from the table of the Unionist bourgeoisie now strengthened by an alliance with the SDLP. Neither is there likely to a huge inflow of funds to buy off opposition; in fact the British hope to save some of the cost of maintaining a presence in Ireland.
All that is on offer is an appeal for investment by transnationals: the opportunity to be more exploited than others such as the South of Ireland in the competition for foreign investment.
The vote represents a political defeat, possibly a historic defeat, for radical republicanism. But in some ways votes are only a wish list: offered an apparent choice between peace and war, most people voted "yes" for peace.
The real outcome of this process will be determined by events on the ground, by what happens on the Garvaghy and Ormeau Roads and elsewhere.
The British ruling class, having failed to win militarily over 29 years, have tilted things in their favour a fair number of degrees, but they have not yet won a decisive victory.
It is the responsibility of all anti-imperialists to ensure they fail.