What have they got? was the question many asked when the IRA declared its first cease fire in August 1994. Surely, they concluded, watching the "victory" parade down the Falls Road, the Republicans must have been promised something in the secret negotiations with the Major government which had been going on since the Spring of 1993.
The doubts grew when the Loyalists declared their cease-fire shortly afterwards – apparently convinced that there was no secret deal and the IRA cease-fire was unilateral.
It’s now clear that although the IRA may not have lost the war they seem about to surrender the peace. It’s a good bet that Sinn Fein will not oppose the Belfast agreement. It’s equally likely they will stand for and take their seats in the new Assembly at Stormont, the building which for 50 years housed the Unionist regime until it was abolished in 1972 .
Their attitude to the repeal of Articles 2 and 3 of the 26 County Constitution is less clear, but once they accept the principle of partition there seems little point in opposing writing it into the South’s Constitution.
All commentators agree that Sinn Fein made most concessions and have achieved nothing which could be presented as a bridge to further progress.
The harsh fact is that all the effort, heroism and death has been for almost nothing. This is no stepping stone to unity – as Michael Collins claimed of the 1921 Treaty. Return to armed struggle is not an option: a weakened and divided IRA could hardly achieve the victory which 28 years of war could not.
After nearly 30 years of war all they have to show is some cross border committees on fishing, tourism, and spending EU grants, release of the prisoners in two years and a place in the new "powersharing cabinet" at Stormont. The Irish language is to be officially recognised in the North – just ahead of European Union legislation which requires that anyway.
In return, northern Nationalists are to be made effectively stateless by the repeal of Articles 2 & 3 of the 26 County constitution; the Unionist minority in Ireland will be given a constitutional veto over Irish unity; the British claim to a part of Ireland will be officially recognised – and there will be a commission to look at policing. In other words, the bigoted, murderous RUC will remain to ensure fairness and equality in the revamped orange state. Even by the watery standards of reformism this is an insipid brew.
However loudly Sinn Fein may continue to proclaim their opposition to partition and Unionist misrule, by supporting this deal they are signaling the end of Republicanism as a serious radical force in Ireland.
Campaigning against would at least have kept their base together and perhaps forced some concessions from the British. Agreeing to the new partitionist treaty indicates not only the futility of the last 30 years, but also that they believe there is no alternative to what has rightly been described as a failed political entity.
Worst of all, by participating they will give it a veneer of democracy, having denied for years that it could be reformed.
If the special Ard-Fheis on May 10 votes to accept the deal then there is likely to be an exodus from Sinn Fein, though many unhappy with it will no doubt remain in the party because the opposition has no real alternative.
The other parts of the "nationalist family", Fianna Fail and the SDLP, are both in favour of the deal, and the Republican splinter groups offer nothing except discredited militarism. Only the small socialist forces calling for a no vote in both referenda are beginning to point the way forward.
As in the original Treaty of 1921, the leadership of the IRA will come under heavy pressure from the British to hand over arms and to police the new settlement in Nationalist areas, including preventing other elements such as the Continuity Army Council carrying out attacks. The British would be happy if the oppositionists were eliminated by their former colleagues, and there will undoubtedly be provocations. Republicans should refuse to hand over weapons: whatever the inadequacies of the IRA in this respect, to disarm would be to entrust the defence of nationalist areas against sectarian attacks to the very state which promotes them.
One of Sinn Fein’s "gains" from the so called "Belfast Agreement" is British acceptance of the "equality agenda", a belief that somehow the new arrangement will improve the position of the Northern Ireland nationalists. But it was the very impossibility of equal treatment within the sectarian statelet which gave rise to the present phase of the struggle in 1969.
Reform is not possible. The 6 County statelet was created with a built-in Unionist majority – a built-in Unionist veto against Irish independence. It isn’t a sectarian state simply because the Unionists are bigots, though some undoubtedly were and remain so. Sectarianism was and remains the vital necessity for its survival.
If Nationalists/Catholics had equal treatment, then there was no benefit for working class Protestants, and the hold of the Unionists would be weakened. In fact these workers might (and sometimes did) unite across the sectarian divide against their Unionist masters. Such unity was always smashed by playing the orange card.
The other reason sectarianism is inbuilt is the fear that population changes would reverse the original Unionist majority. The Catholic population had to be kept down through housing, employment and emigration policies.
A variant of this latter argument has been used within Sinn Fein in favour of the "peace" strategy. If , the argument goes, present trends continue, the current 58/42 split within the electorate could swing to a Nationalist majority in another generation. Sectarian headcounting like this should have no place in a movement which traces its origins to the United Irishmen.
The fact is that de-politicisation and a falling back by Republicans into narrow, sectarian bunker mentality has been a feature of the whole "peace process". The goal of a democratic, socialist 32 county republic has been set aside in favour of "equality" and "parity of esteem" within a reconstructed Six County State. The aim of the Sinn Fein leadership appears to be to overtake the Social Democratic and Labour Party as the main representative of the nationalists.
Accepting partition and the internal settlement leads to a demand for "equality of the two traditions" within the new set-up. To this way of thinking, Nationalism is equated with Catholicism, Protestantism with Unionism and Sinn Fein abandon their Republicanism in order to represent a narrow Catholic nationalism, a mirror image of the bigotry and sectarianism of the other side.
Sinn Fein’s commitment to a Republicanism which sought to unite "Catholic, Protestant and Dissenter" may not always have been honoured, but at least it did not abandon Protestant workers to the calculated sectarianism of their Unionist bosses or tie Catholics entirely to the bigotry of the Catholic Church. Contrary to the way it’s played in the British press, the "peace process" will not diminish sectarianism but entrench it.
The most important step which need to be taken by anti-partitionists is to spell out a political strategy which seeks to unite all those forces who are in favour of Irish independence and against the attempt to remake the Orange State. But these forces need to think beyond the referenda.
Because the Orange state cannot be reformed, there is every chance the new political arrangements will face continual challenge and crisis. The Israeli/Palestinian situation after Oslo is a possible analogy. The ranting of the Tory right on the likely release of prisoners is a taste of what is to come on what is the sole Republican gain from this process.
And whatever the outcome of the referenda, north and south (and the amount of effort which the British intend to put in undermines the claims by some journalists that a ‘Yes" vote is assured).
The direction of developments will be determined by what happens on the ground. A key test is the Orange marches in July, but there will be others around "decommissioning" of weapons, the RUC and the release of prisoners.
The residents’ committees opposed to the Orange marches are apparently willing to allow marches through their areas if only the Orangemen will ask permission. Socialists should oppose all Orange marches for the brutal sectarian Taig bashes they are.
The British have paid almost nothing for this deal. Aside from the wounded imperial pride of Norman Tebbit and some Daily Telegraph commentators, the reaction has been positive, indeed some have been euphoric. There remains however a significant section of the British ruling class which is itching to liquidate Republicanism and will continue to provide succour to their Unionist friends.
Most Tories and Liberal Democrats seem likely to row in behind Blair’s attempt to sell the deal. So will most of the left, on the basis that "peace’ will allow the operation of "normal class politics" and a chance to heal sectarian divisions among the working class in the Six Counties.
Of course it will do no such thing. The Orange state is built on sectarianism – its whole rationale is to divide the Irish working class.
Anybody who doubts this has only to look at the RUC. It remains in being and the "independent" commission mentioned in the agreement will certainly not abolish it. The reason is that it is the armed wing of the Unionist Party and the Orange Order.
It will only be dismantled when the state itself is dismantled. The British have no intention of doing that because it is in the front-line of the struggle against militant Irish Republicanism. It defends Unionism, the foothold of the British ruling class in Ireland and it is necessarily sectarian.
Because sectarianism (and the marginal advantages which flow from it) is the basis of the alliance between the British and Unionist ruling class and a large section of the Protestant working class, appeals to them to put aside their sectarian attitudes is moralistic whistling in the wind.
Workers unity in action on jobs or cuts in welfare a la the Socialist Workers Party is not going to get around these differences. Furthermore, if there should be any moves towards working class unity by a significant section of Loyalist workers, the British and the Unionists will pull down the "peace agreement".
The defeat of the Republicans would be a big setback in Britain because the biggest obstacle to socialism on these islands, the British State, would be greatly strengthened by such a development. Should the referenda, North and South, show a majority in favour, the British foothold in Ireland and its control over political developments there will be legitimised.
Sectarian divisions among the working class will be cast in stone and the Republican movement divided, isolated and, should they return to war, liquidated.
Possibly the biggest gain for the British ruling class, apart from inflicting a generational, if not historic defeat on Republicanism, is the political victory it gains from being able to portray itself at home and abroad not as an imperial power but as a "peacemaker" in Ireland, while maintaining political control over the whole island.
Even left MPs are going to find it hard to oppose the new settlement, ably abetted by those such as Worker’s Liberty who view the British State as having a benign role in Ireland.
Winning this one allows Blair to make significant steps towards his goal of restructuring the British State in order to preserve it.
In the long run of course he is likely to fail and therefore provide opportunities for the left, but in the short run the left is likely to be seriously disorientated by this manoeuvre. Our understanding of these developments and strategic orientation to them are critical for the future.