1997 may well see the fall of the Milosevic regime in Serbia. Every tactic has tried has failed to crush the developing opposition movement. Milosevic is reaping the reward for tactics that have previously kept him in power.
Demonstrations have taken place every day, mainly in Belgrade but also in several other places, since Milosevic overturned the results of local elections held on November 17.
GEOFF RYAN reports.
THE OPPOSITION Zajedno in 13 out of 18 of Serbia's largest cities including Belgrade.
An investigation by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, headed by former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gon. zalez, upheld the opposition's claims.
The regime has now, belatedly, been forced to accept some or the allegations of fraud. Milosevic's attempts to push the blame onto officials of his ruling Serbian Socialist The scale of the protests has been enormous, with over two hundred and fifty thousand taking part in the biggest demonstration. An attempted counter-demonstration br Milosevic supporters could muster only thirty thousand. Milosevic has called in riot police to break up or prevent marches. Neither repres sion nor appalling weather has been able to stop the protests.
The state-controlled media have largely ignored the protests, though been denounced as Nazis. It has been impossible, however, to prevent news of demonstrations be coming known. Milosevic was dio station B-92 back on the air after aclumsy attempt at silencing it. he regime is incapable of controlling which has been widely used by Zajedno supporters.
Splits in support
The protests have also led to the splits among some of his former supporters, I he army is reported to be divided, unwilling to intervene pay (or its absence) is rife. There is soldiers at the privileged position of the security Police. occuons of the officer corps still harbour grudges against Milosevic for his failure to support military intervention in Slovenia in 1991.
Splits are appearing within the SPS where there is much resentment at the dominant roic or the United Yugoslav Left (IL). Former Milosevic ideologues like Boris Jovic and Mihailo Markovic have Not waving, but drowning: Milosevic complained bitterly about this. The tiny JUL, a coalition partner of the SPS, is largely run by Mirjana Markovic, married to Slobodan Milosevic.
The Milosevic family influence is not confined to politics. Like the former Stalinist rozimes of Fastern Europe, political power has gone sonal enrichment. At a time when most Serbian workers are still living on or below the poverty line this has become a great cause of resentment.
Church
Milosevic has now lost the last of his important allies in Serbia, the backing his wars for a Greater Serbia, and its support for Milosevic against the Albanian population of Kosovo, the Church now supports Milosevic's return to vaguely Marxist rhetoric has made it easier to portray him as the last the opposition.
Behind the protests hes Milosevic's wars against Crostia are not primarily anti-war. leaders of Zajedno are even more virulent Serb nationalists than Milosevic.
Opposition to Milosevic has been fuelled by his willingness to aban don the Bosnian Serb leadership and even to denounce Kadovan Karadzic as a war criminal. This turn was not simply a public gesture designed to ride continued covert support. It was undoubtedly real.
Milosevic, after all, is not a convinced nationalist. He is a Stalinist bureaucrat. Like all Stalinists he will use national. him and abandon it wach sl doesn't. Dump. ing Adrauzic and Miadic was a small price to pay for getting sanctions lifted. The Dayton 'peace' accords gave Milosevic an important role in asHe had previously been prepared to remove leaders of the Kratina Serbs in Croatia, who he had helped to power, when incy occame too B dependent. They were left to defend themselves against the Croatian army. A deal with Croatian president Tudjman became more imporMilosevic had previously relied on and whipped up nationalism in his fight during the 1980s for the leadership of Serbian Stalinism and in his wars in Bosnia and Croatia. His denunciations of the Bosnian Serb leadership may have placated the west - but they were bound to anger many in Serbia who had suffered economic hardship and the death of loved ones as a result of Milosevic's wars.
Milosevic's subsequent abandonment of nationalism was accompanied by a return to vaguely Marxist sounding rhetoric on economic matters the Ul, renlaced the tascistic Serbian Radical Party as his coalition partners. Since the JUL was trying to portray itself as a party of peace (it replaced the Red Star with a dove as its emblem) such an alhance rcquirca an aoandonmical of war.
The JUL was not more 'progressive' than Milosevic. They simply followed a different variant of Fancy behered that thd best way for the bureaucracy to cling on to power was to concentrate on economic rather than military isSounding the knell of Stalinist rule? Belgrade protestors stand firm against police violence sues.
Two of the main Icaders of Za. jedno have ultra-nationalist credentials. Vuk Draskovic has made rabidly xenophobic speeches in the past and orkaniscu a paramilitary group, the Serbian Guard, which he was a pacifist.
Barbecue
Despite his pacifism he calls for the rehabilitation of the former Get nik leader Draza Mihailovic, who collaborated with the Nazi occupiers during the Second World War. Zoran Djindjic attended a barbecue with Radovan Karadzic. Both leaders, while vehement in their denunciations of Milosevic, bave refused to denounce the crimes of the BosWhat is more important is that ficy cy into and mobilise an tab portant sentiment of residual Serb nationalism. The relative isolation of the Civic Alliance led by the third Zajedno leader Vesna Pesic, the only one to refrain from nationalist rhetoric, is negative testimony to Milosevie's return to vaguely Marxist rhetoric has made it caster to portray him as the last remaining 'Communist' leader in Eastern Can those carrying placards in English proclaiming 'Better totalling nearly £100,000 to the British Conservative party from the 'communist Serbian regime?
Can they explain why it has been Tory MPs who have defended Milosevic? Foremost among CASES for the remime has been Harold Elletson, MP for Blackpool, who is also an agent for MI6.
Zajedno is united solely on the basis of opposition to Milosevic. It mobilises on the twin bases of Serb nationalism and anti-communism If Milosevic were to fall it would Taptoly sput apart. 11s a movercal based primarily on intellectuals and the petit bourgcoisic.
Despite appeals for strikes, they have so lar tatica to moomise inc working class. The independent union Nezatinost remains very weak and politically extremely heterogenous, ranging from monarchism ism.
Most workers are alienated from the regime, not least because they are paid so irregularly. However they have little confidence in Zajedno - though they voted for it in large numbers.
To conclude that socialists should defend Milosevic would be totally wrong. Milosevic remains in power today through police repression and clectoral fraud. The democratic demands of the opposition movement should be supported. The overthrow of Milosevic would open up the possibility of developing an alternative to the Serbian na. tionalism that has been at the centre of the break up of Yugoslavia. A serious alternative to the national ism of many of today's demonstra. nons would be develop in these circumstances.
Supporting the Icgitimate complaints of Zajedno is not the same as supporting its policies or its leaders. Socialists in Serbia need their own voice and their own candidates in elections against both Zajedno and Milosevic.
Neither the pro-capitalist poltcies of Milosevic nor of Zajedno can solve the problems of workers in Serbia. Serbian nationalism must be challenged, arguing for the need to link up with workers throughout the former Yugoslavia.
A refusal to give any political support to Zajedno does not, however, mean that socialists should not be part of common actions against Milosevic's fraud and repression.
Despite the seriously wrong political ideas of Zajedno, the overthrow of Milosevic will have important repercussions. On December 13 tens of thousands of protesters in Belgrade held a minute's silence for an Albanian teacher killed in Kosovo by the police. Such an event would have been impossible when Milosevic ruled unchallenged.
Distance
There are already signs in Montenegro that the normally servile party leadership is taking its distance from Milsoevic. Without Milosevic it is difficult to see how Tudiman can survive in Croatia Despite the pro-capitalist policies of protesters in Belgrade and Zagreb neither Washington nor London would look too kindly on the re moval of those they believe can best guarantee stability in the Balkans.
In the next issue we will look at the crisis of the Tudjman regime in Croatia, a crisis that in many ways mirrors that in Serbia.
Socialist Durok