The NATO-US plan to bomb a 49%-51% carve up of Bosnia into existence appears to have failed.
It was always a high risk strategy. If Karadzic and the Bosnian Serbs had collapsed after a couple of days, agreed and entered "peace"" talks of the basis of a 49%:51% split of Rosnian territory, they could have claimed a breakthrough campaign would have been boosted.
It did not happen that way. The Pale regime stood firm, even after the US had blasted The bombing campaign went into crisis, caught between two factors; the hostile reaction from Moscow and the Bosnian coverament s crusal to 1C frain from taking military advantage of the bombing.
After a week of bombing Liberation!
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Initially the main pressure for such a deal was the reaction from the Russian Duma, where acpubes offerco themscles as human shields against the bombing, and a resolution was adopted. under pressure by Zhirinovski and the national. ists, for the unilateral lifting of the embargo against Serbia. Yeltsin only vetoed the resolu. tion after the compromise deal to stop the bombing had been worked out.
have been liberated. were quickly overtaken by the Bosnian and Croat offensive advertisment Is Techno a Milosevic. around Bihac and in the north tion authorities, also have a big west in Herzog Bosna. As we responsibility to create the go to press, huge swathes of most favourable conditions to Serbian occupied territory encourage the original Serb families to come back at the The Bosnian army Sth carliest possible time. Corps broke out of Bihac. The offensives have reended its isolation as an en- duced Serbian-held territoryclave, and took the towns of from 70% of Bosnia almost Sanski Most and Bosanska down to the 51% which would Krupa: it is pushing towards have been ceded under the US Prijedor and the biggest town plan. in the Serbian army occupied This has blown the US plan territories, Banja Luka. At the out of the water, since the of same time Croat Federation fensive appears to be continutroops took the towns of Kljue ing, and even if it stopped the figures are out of date as a The offensives have created starting point for negotiations. a nure exodus or cinic seres from the territory regained. has in any case always had an They fear reprisals for the eth- ambiguous position on the nic cleansing pogroms carried various "peace" plans. They out by the Serbian forces. As have agreed to various propos such these Serbs are also the als in principle under the presvictims of the nortoms and the sure of events, while at the policies of Karadzic and same time preparing for a militry solution.
But the Bosnian govern- Their latest statement on the ment, which is fighting a war offensive is that they relain "an absolute right to liberate socicty, along with the Croa- the occupied parts of Bosnia". Indeed they have.
In the same way that they have refused to trust those who have been talking peace whilst imposing we anns chod go cl them, they should watch their back with Tudjman - whose intentions are far from clear.
It is a big military advantage to have Croatian forces with the Bosnians in the offensive, but it will give Tudjman far more leverage in the eventual shape of Bosnia and the degree of real independence it achieves.
The international repercussions of the situation are hard to fully assess. Certainly the crisis of credibility of the UN - restoration of which was an other objective of the bombing campaign - is not resolved. But the big question is whether Bosnian and Croatian military gains will bring Serbia itself. still the most powerful milicary force in the region, di rectly into the war.
This would again bring the the disparity of heavy weapons, directly to the fore.