SINKING IN a trillion-dollar sea of debt, international capitalism is divided and uncertain over its future. GABRIEL MAISSIN discussed with ERNEST MANDEL, a veteran leader of the Fourth International. SOME STATISTICAL indicators indicate an upturn, a resumption of growth. Is this a real upturn, what is its depth and does it signify a resumption of capitalist growth in the medium term? It is necessary to distinguish two kinds of fluctuation in the capitalist economy. There are not only short cycles, but also what are called "long waves", expansionary and depressive.
The long expansionary wave in general dominated the capitalist economy from 1949 until the late 1960s and early 1970s. The long depressive wave which began in 1973 is characterised by the fact that, independently of what happens conjuncturally, underlying unemployment has continued to increase. Everyone knows that the official figures are false.
My estimate is that in the imperialist countries this figure is currently more than 50 million and that this is going to rise uninterruptedly. In the third world, the figure is in the hundreds of millions.
To the unemployed must be added the down and outs, the marginalised, those living in what is called the "new poverty"; these also are numbered in the millions, and their In the third world the number cannot be estimated. It would be necessary to go back to the worst moment of the economic crisis of the 1930s to find phenomena of this character. Those living below the poverty level in the imperialist countries represent, depending on the country, from 10 per cent to 30 per cent of the population, with a few exceptions. But these exceptions, like Sweden and Switzerland, will not last long, for these are world phenomena. It is the inability of the capitalst economy to nalt this movement which justifies the use of the term long depressive wave.
In the countries of the third world, and in the countries of eastern Europe and Russia, this evolution is accompanied by a disastrous decline in the standard of living (for example, in Mexico, in the space of some years, the standard of living of the majority of people has fallen to what it was before the Second World War). In some countries, we see increasing use of child labour, a kind of semi-slavery, in heartbreaking conditions.
All this does not exclude a conjunctural movement inside the long depressive wave, for the latter does not imply a continual fall of production. Today there is unquestionably a revival of production in a series of imperialist countries, not in all cases at the same level. This presents an opportunity for the trade union movement, to say, like the German metalworkers, "production is increasing, profits are increasing, we want our share of the cake". It is then the moment to pose realisable demands. But in the end this conjunctural short or medium term movement does change the fundamental terms of the problem; there is no perspective of emerging from the long depressive wave in the foreseeable future.
As far as one can judge, this will continue beyond the end of the 20th century. But there is all the same a contradiction because profit levels have risen. Since 1991-1993, there has been a growth in profits of 12 to 13 per cent. Why should such an upturn in company profits not be accompanied by a wider long term movement? Simply because of the fundamental curse of the capitalist regime.
In order for there to be a real upturn and the possibility of a durable Mandel, with Alan Thornett (left) and Ann Conway (right), featured speakers at a Socialist Outlook rally long term growth, two conditions are necessary; an increase in profits, but also an enlargement of the market.
The capitalist regime cannot function on the basis of macro-economic indicators. Each commodity is specific and it has to be met by a specific demand. The producers of machine tools do not work for the consumers who buy shoes. We are confronted with a new theoretical problem.
Underestimated
Up until now, Marxists, including the Fourth International, have underestimated it; when we speak of the • globalisation of the economy, it as if it was a quasi-magical phenomenon, above relations between human beings. One of the great merits of Marx and Marxism is to understand that at the basis of any economic scale. What you don't know you can't control. As long as the expansionary long wave lasted, the phenomenon was circumscribed. But after the depressive long wave began, there was a coincidence between two phenomena. On the one hand, these multinationals disposing of enormous means, and on the other hand the narrow limits of productive investment. And in these conditions, we have seen what I call the phenomenon of over-liquidities, the transformation of a significant part of merchant capital into money capital, liquid or quasi-liquid capital. Which is thrown into speculation, in the stock exchange or property.
Today the electronic means exist for almost instantaneous transfers of capitals on the world scale. Again, we should quantify what we're talking about. Every working day on the exchange markets and those linked to them, business is done equivalent to the annual volume of world trade!
This "liquification" of capital also prolongs a phenomenon which had already existed. The capitalist economy, after the Second World War, launched itself on an ocean of debts, world indebtment was colossal. Everybody speaks of the third world debt, but this debt, which concerns half the human race, is hardly 15 per cent of the total volume of debt! There is the debt of the imperialist enterprises, of the capitalists, there is the debt of households, there is the debt of non third world governments. These figures have become incalculable, representing some trillions of dollars of debt. And there again we touch on a fundamental phenomenon which explains why an easy exit from the long wave is not likely.
Multinationals
Speaking of multinationals, it is wrong to regard them as a "bloc". There is a phenomenon of concentration of multinationals, the figure is cited of some six hundred who predominate on a world market. Some predict that it will be down to a hundred in a few years. This appears a little excessive to me, but you never know. The dollar is in free fall. And the absence of a hegemonic imperialist power has as a consequence the incapacity of the world bourgeoisie to impose solutions.
The meetings of G7 generally end up on a note of impotence, without any decision. We are accustomed to speaking of a crisis of the subjective factor, of a crisis of the consciousness, the leadership, of the proletariat. But today there is a crisis of leadership and of consciousness of the bourgeoisie. And this is a sociopolitical reason that there is no easy exit from the long depressive wave likely for the moment. • Taken from La Gauche.