IT SEEMS John Major has no escape from the profound crisis wracking the Tory Party.
Barely a moment's respite separated the catastrophic local election results from a new sleaze row; then came the death of another Tory backbencher, a battle with greedy Tory back- benchers over the Nolan Report, new evidence that growth of the economy is already slowing down, a renewed offensive from Michael Portillo, yet another rumpus over Europe, and now the heavy-gun broadside fired at his government by Margaret Thatcher.
To cap it all, having dragooned enough Tory MPs into risking their seats by voting to preserve Virginia Bottomley's hospital cuts, her ludicrous attempts to impose local pay bargaining (compounded by the ham-fisted Gerry Malone) has succeeded in turning the scabs of the Royal College of Nursing into radicals, creating a real possibility of industrial action by 850,000 NHS workers this Links These problems all appearto come from different directions, but they are linked: the gravy train has run out of steam. ployment benefit, indicating transformed. upwards of 4 million out of Even the promise of tax work and millions more un- cuts doesn't work as it used to. der-employed. The lion's Middle class families faced share of the 'new jobs' trum- with a vague promise of tax peted by the Tories have been cuts in exchange for the realpart-time, low-paid jobs in the ity of cuts in education for their children today know that service sector.
While privatised monopo- they cannot possibly afford to lies irritate millions as they go private: they have joined celebrate more windfall prof- the revolt. its and announce endless new The two-thirds to one-third rounds of redundancies, the split now operates in reverse. damage done by unemploy- The Tory economic policies ment has spread well beyond and their implications for the initial waves of job cuts in the 1980s, which mainly hit The two-thirds to shop floor workers in manuone-third split now facturing industry.
Redundancies and the fear operates in of them are now biting deep reverse. The Tory into the Tories' middle class base of electoral support for economic policies whom the toll of jobs axed in are cutting against managerial grades, in the media, in privatised industries a majority of the and in 'safe' sectors like population. banking, insurance, finance, teaching, and the civil service means a whole new vista of health, education and welfare long-term insecurity.
services are cutting against a Many fear they may no majority of the population. longer be able to afford to buy As more people get angry, their houses. With rampant each of the scandals revealing use of temporary contracts the hypocrisy and personal and casualisation, full-time corruption of Tory backpermanent jobs are now few benchers and ministers serves and far between.
further to discredit a governTo cap it all, Kenneth ment which is trying to sell an Clarke is planning to axe social security support for mortgage interest payments in the first nine months of unemployment: tens of thousands could face repossession of their homes as a result. outdated dream.
As an Evening Standard article recently commented: "The government is so discredited that even its own natural supporters instinctively assume it is lying."
The Tories of course are deeply divided on how to repair the damage to their electoral base.
The hard right, led by Portillo and now clearly backed by Thatcher's intervention, is setting out an agenda of rabid nationalist opposition to any further European integration, (incorporating a thinly-disguised strand of racism) coupled with renewed attacks on the fabric of the welfare state and a new crackdown on law and order.
Although the chauvinist tabloid press would no doubt warm to a renewed campaign against Brussels bureaucrats, there is little evidence that Portillo personally or the main brunt of his policy would win even as much support as John Major.
Less obviously lurking in the wings, and still very much on the defensive, are the Euroenthusiasts, headed by Heseltine, who recognise the inherent weakness of British capital, and see its incorporaon a salary of £32,000 a tion into the EU block as the only long-term future.
Major, leaning now in one direction, now in the other, is balancing precariously between the two factions. That is the stance which has so antagonised Thatcher.
But there is little division over economic policy: both lines in the short run demand a continuation of the policies which have created the electorally disastrous 'feel bad factor' and more cuts in public spending - which in turn drive the government into damaging conflict with public sector workers and with users of the service.
Polarised
Thatcher's unexpected intervention into this crisis could signal a renewed effort to force a leadership contest: it will certainly help polarise the growing conflict in a party which no longer has the credibility or the skills to push the populist buttons that won four successive general elections.
The Tory Party itself has dwindled to just 400,000 members, and is deep in debt. Small wonder Major had to prevent any investigation of its funding by the Nolan Commission. It is up against a last century described elechave dumped over two thousand Tory councillors growing public mood that the time is over-ripe for a change of direction.
What a strange and tragic time, therefore, for Gordon Brown to unveil 'alternative' economic policies more stringent, more reactionary, than those of Kenneth Clarke, who now taunts the shadow chancellor, challenging him to name an area of economic policy where he would do things differently.
The 'change' demanded of Labour by Tony Blair has been in quite the opposite direction to most voters' aspirations - a change to embrace the very market values that have so discredited the Tories.
This may help Blair win the support of Rupert Murdoch, but it will not enthuse trade unionists and Labour voters, who want something different.
One implication of this is that any 'honeymoon' period of a Blair Labour government will be extremely brief.
That's why the key strategic issue in the labour movement is to ensure that when these struggles break out there is an organised left in the unions and the Labour Party prepared to stand up for the interests of the working class. agers - acting as real local