Women in besieged Tuzla assemble in battle fatigues Despite the four month so-called ceasefire in Bosnia 200,000 people on the Bihac pocket are on the verge of starvation and are under constant attack from Serbs from the Krajina area of Croatia.
Within the last few days there are signs of a Bosnian army offensive near Travnic in central Bosnia. The fact is that the cease fire has never existed in any real sense but suited commanders on both sides who were limiting their operations through the wory monds or he winter.
From the point of view of the Bosnians a protracted ceasefire is in any case unacceptable since it would freeze the current battle lines into de facto borders and hand 70 per cent of their country to the Serbs.
What is clear is that both sides are preparing for renewed offensives as soon as the weather breaks and have used the lull in the fighting which has existed in some places to prepare their logistics.
Despite doubtful rumours of secret arms flights into Tuzla and past bluster from the US about the lifting of the arms embargo Bosnia still suffers a massive disadvantage of weaponry in what promises to be a major escalation of the war,.
The wild card in the situation is which way the Croatian regime is going to jump in two months time.
Currently Tudjman, who under pressure from nationalists within Croatia, has told the UN that their four year old mandate to operate inside Croatia will not be renewed when it ends at the end of April, and the UN claims that that would make their operation in Bosnia itself impossible.
Tudjman
Tudjman talks of recovering the 25 per cent of Croatia still held by Serbs since 1991. The Krajina, one of the principal areas involved, was a strategic area of the country particularly as far as communications were concerned.
Croatia claims; with some justification, that the UN presence has simply frozen the situation and entrenched the Serbian gains from the 1991 war and that the only way they will regain the occupied territories is by their own efforts - although they claim they have not yet decided on the military option.
At the same time Tudjman is seeking discussions with Milosevic, but on the basis of the recognition of the pre-1991 borders - a condition Milosevic is certain to reject.
There is talk of offering Milosevic other territory in exchange for a deal but this would be difficult to sell.
Any deal between Tudjman and Milosevic, however, would be extremely dangerous for Bosnia since it would certainly involve the dissolution of the fragile Bosnian\Croat federation which does at least facilitate. supply lines to the South.
If media speculation that Croatia will indeed enter the war against the Krajina Serbs or Serbia turned out to be true it would clearly transform the conflict -although the Serbs are far better armed than Croatia and Bosnia combined.
Much more likely, however, is that Tudjman is pushing the UN to the brink and will in the end settle for a new mandate if he can get it more on his terms.
Tatters
Meanwhile Western policy remains in tatters. The five na-