Whether the leak by the Times of selected parts of the so-called Framework Document from the London/Dublin talks was a calculated attempt by hard-line Unionist elements in the British ruling class to scupper the emerging deal or just a way of stiffening the British negotiators is not yet clear.
What is not in doubt is the jolt it gave to an already divided and increasingly desperate Tory government. Divisions over the EC have begun to fuse with other fixations on the Tory right - immigration and devolution, and now the outline of a London/Dublin agreement which appears to concede sovereignty.
At the recent Young Conservative Conference, former junior minister Neil Hamilton called for the Tories to rally to IRELAND UNFREE the flag in the next election - not the best omen for Major who needs to throw something to Dublin to sustain the peace process.
Outlines
The broad outlines of the Framework Document have anyway been clear for some time, certainly since the publication of the Downing Street Declaration. The nub of it is that, in return for cross border bodies to co-ordinate policy in such areas as agriculture, tourism regional development and fishing and to deal directly with the EC, Dublin will hold a referendum to remove Article 2 of the Constitution - the so-called territorial claim.
A devolved government will be put in place in Belfast with some built in safeguards for Nationalists.
The Unionists have a fine calculation to make. If they push Major too far he may go the way of Albert Reynolds - and they are probably even more suspicious of a Labour Government in spite of Party spokesperson Marjorie Mowlam's efforts to appease them and to bolster Major. Labour may be making friendly noises but the Conservative and Unionist Party are much more likely to give them a sympaThenic ear.
For all the huffing and puffing of the Unionist leaders they are going into the talks which will follow publication of the Framework Document secure in the knowledge that whatever agreement is finally reached will leave the Six County state intact and that the proposed cross-border bodies will have less powers than those proposed under the 1974 Sunningdale Agreement, the last serious attempt at an internal settlement.
Joint sovereignty In return, Dublin will give up its claim that the North is part of the national territory by changing Article 2 of its constitution. The sticking point is that if the Unionists refused to play ball in any cross-border bodies which come out of the settlement, Dublin is keen to have an override with London. The Unionists see this as a form of joint sovereignty to which they are opposed.
Apart from Major's political weakness and his evident lack of authority in his own party, there is a fear on the Tory right that whatever settlement is agreed in Northern Ireland will imperil the unity of the United Kingdom itself. A devolved government in Available for £1.00 from "Socialist Outlook'.
$41 Stormont will hardly strengthen Major's position in relation to Scottish devolution. It is unlikely that the Tory Party would split either over the question of Scottish devolution or over the question of Ireland, but Tory divisions over Europe could easily mean that Ireland was the catalyst for such a split.
Should the Tories be forced to call an early general election and a Labour government be elected, the peace process could collapse in the devolved government under its own weight, as Labour found it impossible to carry it through against a Tory opposition able to give full vent to its unionist instincts.
In this situation the 'Orange Card' would certainly be played - though maybe with less effect than before World War 1 when the British ruling class was split from top to bottom, reflected in an army mutiny against disarming the loyalist Ulster VolunThe weakest hand in the negotiations is undoubtedly held by the Republicans. Demanding the British negotiate was pushing at an open door once the British realised the cease-fire was permanent. The British are not about to withdraw and the Northern state will be stabilised by the involvement of the Nationalists in the devolved govBE VARNED Yanka VILL MELT FROM THE HEAT OF ULSTER Hobart arti 1985 Protestant response to Anglo-Irish agreement aimed to defend their privileges ernment, as well as by the changes in the South's constitution.
The Framework Document will set the boundaries of what can be decided in the negotiations and it makes few concessions to the Republican position. At best, prisoners are likely to be released on licence rather than en masse, the British will withdraw to barracks and border roads will be re-opened. The chances of the Royal Irish Regiment, heirs of the hated B Specials, being disbanded are minimal. The whole security apparatus built up by the British over 25 years will remain in place and the changes to the RUC will be at best cosmetic.
Split
The chances of a Republican split are small - even those arguing for an end to the cease-fire recognise no military victory is possible and certainly not with smaller and more isolated forces emerging from a split.
The main part of the leadership is relying on Fianna Fail and the US to put pressure on the British in the negotiations. They have accepted that the question of self determination can be put separately to both parts of Ireland and thus the inevitable partitionist settlement which flows NO BILLPOSTING from that. It is likely they will argue that whatever deal finally emerges will be a stepping stone to eventual unity - precisely the argument which was used to justify the 1921 partitionist settlement Whatever settlement emerges it is unlikely to bring peace any more than did the 1921 Treaty. In the 23 years of direct rule since the Stormont government was abolished in 1972, the linchpin of the sectarian state - discrimination against Catholics in employment - remains almost unchanged.
Now Stormont is to be re-established in a new form with the Dublin government playing the role of protectors of the Nationalists and the promise of some safeguards within the structures of the devolved government.
For socialists, the tasks remain the same. We call for British withdrawal, not for negotiations. We favour peace but point out that any settlement which retains the undemocratic six county state will not bring peace. We reject the idea that Britain has any progressive role in Ireland.
We defend the right of the Irish to wage armed struggle against the undemocratic settlement imposed by force in 1921 and maintained by Britain ever since, though we have consistently pointed out that the British can not be defeated by military means alone.
The difficult road ahead for socialists and republicans is not a return to a military campaign; but a mobilisation North and South to oppose the new Treaty:
Socialist
PO Box | 109, London N4 2UU LETTING AGREED BEST
The British are not about to withdraw and the Northern state will be stabilised by the involvement of the Nationalists
IRON LADY IL CH