Printed by Tridant Press, Edenbridge. Published by Idolrare Ltd, PO Box 1109, London N4 2UU. Copyright © 1995 the Chechen capital Grozny as we go to press, as the Russian invasion runs into the predicted stiff resistance.
The hollow boasts three weeks ago of Russian Defence Minister Pavel Grachev that airborne units could take Grozny within two hours now look even more ridiculous.
The Russian onslaught on Chechenia has been marked by a ruthless savagery, with repeated intimidatory air strikes consistently aimed at civilian targets.
But with three centuries of proud resistance to Russian domination behind them, the Chechens were never going to be easily used as sacrificial victims to boost the flagging reputation of Russian President Yeltsin.
Dozens of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles are reported destroyed, and over 100 prisoners have been taken by the irregular Chechen 'Dad's Army' which has been assembled to defend the capital.
Yeltsin's decision to invade was always a desperate attempt to impose the stamp of his authority SPECIAL OFFER: 12 month subscription £17.00 (Britain), plus FREE copy of Socialism after Stalinism pamphlet as Russia descends into economic and political chaos.
He delayed a decision to launch the all-out military offensive until he had been given an enthusiastic nod of support from the Clinton administration and the European Union, where it was YES! Please send me 1 year's sub Name . Address. Send to PO Box 1109, London N4 2UU agreed that the repression of the 3-year Chechen "independence' was a purely "internal' matter for Russia, to be resolved as quickly and quietly as possible.
For international capital, a crucial factor is the fight for control of Russia's only oil pipeline between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. But there would also be alarm that if the Chechen revolt were allowed to succeed, many other nations within the Russian Federation could seek to follow suit, challenging the ability of any Russian government to repay its loans to western banks and its ability to open up the new markets coveted by western multinationals.
In the event, even the USA has become embarrassed and a little squeamish at the bloody tactics employed by the Russian invasion - and alarmed at the prospect that the situation could degenerate into a prolonged Afghanistanstyle guerrilla resistance.
Within Russia, where the economic collapse has continued with a disastrous 15% reduction in industrial output last year, and where his own privatisation chief is now calling for some companies to be renationalised, Yeltsin sees the crackdown against 'Chechen gangsters' as a means of winning back domestic support, appealing to the growing forces of Great Russian chauvinism.
In fact it has left him more isolated than ever in the Russian parliament. His former prime minister Yegor Gaidar has joined the large number opposing the war, which also includes the Communists. Only the most right wing nationalists, headed by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, have supported the invasion.
Isolation
His political isolation appears to be driving Yeltsin ever closer to a small coterie of advisors, including the heads of the Defence and Interior ministries and other elements of the military apparatus. These advisors are pushing him ever further to the authoritarian right, with increased reliance on military support.
Yet the invasion was opposed from the outset by rank and file soldiers and the most intelligent military commanders on the ground, and appears to have led Chechen irregulars hold up the might of Russian army attackers to a wholesale crisis within the army.
The morale among the invading troops is at rock bottom as they confront the courageous Chechen resistance. An outright victory seems most unlikely.
The anti-war movement, muted by political demoralisation and by widespread racist hostility to the mainly muslim and darkerskinned peoples of the Caucasus, is beginning to make itself a factor in Moscow. It will grow in intensity as the Russian death toll MOnT The Russian troops must be immediately withdrawn from Chechenia, and the right of self-determination must be upheld for nations which, like the Chechens in their 85% vote for independence in 1991, show they desire it.
In the long run Yeltsin cannot bomb or shoot enough people to keep the Federation together by force: only a reversal of his disastrous marketisation policies, the development of democratic socialist planning and the beginnings of economic expansion can secure a voluntary federation of nations.