WHAT LIES behind Saddam Hussein's sabre rattling? Only a lunatic could imagine that Iraq could invade Kuwait without a massive response by the United States and the other imperialist nations. Surely even Saddam Hussein knew he would have to back down?
Saddam's provocation of a new "confrontation" is mainly for internal consumption - an attempt to mobilise the population in support of his regime.
There are three major factors motivating his actions. The most important of these is that despite the incredible level of repression, the Ba'athist government is threatened internally.
There have almost certainly been attempts to plot a coup inside the army and overthrow JÖRG HAIDER, leader of Saddam. Food riots, caused by the severe shortages imposed by international sangtions, have hit the major cities.
Both the Iraqi elite and the working masses understand that Saddam has brought them nothing but misery.
Even the most cunning, most ruthless and most determined dictator can eventually be brought down by mass disaffection and divisions in the ruling elite.
Rumours abound of the execution of up to 150 leading army officers, and the murder of top government officials. No one is safe from Saddam's paranoid repression.
A new military mobilisation and confrontation with imperialism serves to say: "this is all the fault of world imperialism, Saddam represents the interests of the nation".
The second part of Saddam's calculation is that a new crisis highlight international sanctions.
They have had a terrible effect on the people of Iraq, depriving them of food and medicines, and the ability to reconstruct their country after the destruction of the Gulf war.
Saddam probably knows that sanctions will not be lifted until he goes; at least through this crisis he forces a new debate on this issue.
Saddam's most sinister intentions concern the Kurds in the north. Reports indicate that the main military build up is not in the south against Kuwait, but against the liberated Kurdish areas.
Saddam probably knows that while an offensive against Kuwait could not be ignored by the United States, the situation is very different with Kurdistan.
The US can claim a big "victory" in having forced the retreat of the Iraqi forces in the south, and then turn a Keeping an eye on everyone: Big Brother Saddam blind eye to an invasion of Kurdistan - which has as its main objective the recapture of the oil pipeline and oil producing areas.
Kuwait is an artificial statelet, controlled by a corrupt and repressive elite, which serves only as an oilpumping station for western monopolies. This is why the. US defends it.
But the real victims of US policy and Saddam are the Iraqi people and the people of Kurdistan. Bili Clinton's oil embargo and sanctions do nothing to aid them, indeed they are desperately harmed by these policies.
Disease and poverty are the lot of Saddam's subjects. The way forward in the Gulf is to lift the sanctions and support the democratic and working class opposition to Saddam. richer than most European