A NEW escalation of the war In Bosnia, including Serbian ethnic cleansing pogroms and the likely break-up of the 'federation' between Muslim and Croat areas of Bosnia point to a disastrous winter for the region.
Large areas of north eastern Bosnia have been "ethnically cleansed" in recent weeks by Bosnian Serbs, with thousands of Muslim families driven from their homes. The Serbs claim that these areas are now completely 'Muslim free'.
The Serbs have also been attacking Bihac and Gorazda in an attempt to destroy both Bosnian enclaves.
Nor will the rift between Milosevic and Karadzic and the so-called 'blockade' of the border between Serbia and Bosnian Serb territory stop the escalation of the war.
The rift between Serbian leader Milosevic and Bostitan Serb leader Karadzic is real: Milosevic is desperate to get the sanctions, which have had a disastrous effect of the Serbian economy, removed Nonethless he is not going to abandon his 'Greater Serbia' plan. Before the rift, Bosnian Serb fuel and munition dumps were topped up by Serbia. Supplies are secretly crossing the border. by land and by helicopter.
Serbia has agreed to a 135-person UN mission, with no powers of search, to patrol the 375 mile border and attempt to monitor the situation. But this will not stop the secret movement of supplies.
Milosevic may be prepared to settle for the 60 per cent of Bosnian territory offered to the Bosnian Serbs in the US- sponsored settlement; but he will not ultimately abandon the Bosnian Serbs, since he runs the risk of being outflanked by Karadzic, who increasingly presents himself as the real defender of Serbian interests.
The Bosnian Serb position Karadzic: new ethnic cleansing may well be strengthened by the breakdown of the BosnianCroat Federation. If this happens it could well lead to a resumption of the war between Bosnia and Croatia.
The 'Federation' has only existed in the form of an uneasy ceasefire between the Croat HVO and the Bosnian Army. In fact the Bosnian Croat ministate continues to exist despite the claimed existence of the federation. Now the Bosnian Serbs and hard line Croatian nationalists are determined to destabibution centres and miners and their families collect it directly from there.
Much of the discussion at the conference centred of the additional "Multi-Culture" convoy which is being organised in advance of the elections, due at the end of the year.
This is aimed at giving direct support to the continuation of a multi-ethnic Bosnia, against the political threat posed by Islamic fundamentalist organisations.
It will link directly with a lise the fragile situation. This would have serious implications for basic supplies into Bosnia. Even in its emaciated form, the Federation has provided a land link from Bosnia to Split and the outside world. Without it Bosnia becomes land-locked and vulnerable to short term starvation. Tuzla airport remains shut after the fanfare of its opening at the beginning of the vear There is little real chance that the Clinton administration will lift the Arms embargo against Bosnia.
The US has given a deadline of October 15 for the Bosnian Serbs to accept the proposed settlement, and stated that the arms embargo will be lifed if they do not agree.
But the US is under extreme pressure from the European powers, and could run the risk of defeat in the UN Security Council.
The implications of this are obvious. Although the Bosnian army is now better equipped and has been getting limited light conference in Tuzla organised by the Verona Forum, together local multi-ethnic organisations, which is being held in defence of a multi-ethnic Bosnia.
Women's convoy
An important component of this initiative will be a women's convoy.
This unique initiative will take aid from women to women and womens organisations. Lorries from several countries are already organised for this. weaponry, the military advantage remains with the Serbs.
Multi-ethnic Bosnia is also politically threatened by the upcoming elections.
The importance of Tuzla is that it is the best remaining example of a multi-ethnic community which has survived the ravages of the conflict. Tuzla is governed by a multi-ethnic coalition.
The elections, which will take place at the end of the year, directly threaten this situation.
There is a serious danger that the secular and multi-ethnic parties could lose out to the Islamic organisations. Such a result would be a serious blow to the defence of a multi-ethnic Tuzla and of Bosnia as a whole.
The core of the current projects of International Workers Aid is a recognition of this and a campaign, based on a multi-ethnic convoy, which will give direct political and material support to the multi-ethnic forces.
The convov will coincide with and participate in a conference in Tuzla defending the continuation of a multi-ethnic society.
There will aiso be a student contingent which will take aid directly to students in the university of Tuzla.
The budget for running the IWA convoys from now until January is £10,000 - plus the aid itself. Funding for this is urgently needed.
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All donations should be sent to: IWA 12-14 Thornton St, London SW9 OBL (071 978 8622).