Elapsed, the expected "New World Order'' was to be that of a "peaceful" world policed by an all-dominant United States. Now it is clear that the world is more dangerous and less peaceful than when the Soviet Union existed. Conflicts between the major imperialist states are deepening, and Germany and Japan in particular are reinforcing their military capacity. Here PAUL WALKER argues that in the new battles for economic and political dominance, Asia will be a crucial theatre, and that the next major war between capitalist states could be there.
Just before the outbreak of the First World War, German social democrat leader Karl Kautsky argued that the major imperialist powers would abandon war and collaborate to run the world. He argued: "From a purely economic point of view it is therefore not out of the question that capitalism will enter a new phase: the translation of cartelisation onto a global plane, a phase of ultra-imperialism.
"This phase, we will of course, have to combat just as energetically as imperialism; but its dangers lie in quite a different direction, not in an arms race and a threat to peace."
For the next thirty years global warfare was to be the norm rather than the exception as inter-imperialist rivalry grew, colonial repression intensified and national liberation struggles from Mexico to Kenya to China spread throughout the globe. It is little wonder that Lenin described the theory of ultra-imperialism as a "stupid little fable". What Kautsky and others did not understand was that war is at the heart of the world capitalist system - it is organic to it and not an abberation. on the right in Italy, Germany, Belgium, France Plus: Mexican elections, democracy in Nigeria, Livio Maitan on China, Catherine Samary on Bosnia, Haiti, India and more, f2 including postage from Outlook International, PO Box 1109, London N4 ZUU.
The constant gearch for new markets, the need to export capital to offset the declining rate of profit, the need to protect seaways and geographic spaces which are crucial for free trade and the movement of goods - all of these bring different capitalist states into competition with one It is this competition which leads to war in the imperialist era.
Economic competition between imperialist states normally takes form of negotiation, for example over trade as in the GATT Uruguay Round.
But in the long run if one nation or trading bloc has been unable to win the argument through it being the dominant power, nation states carry on politics by another means — war. This is the history of the 20th century which has witnessed two global inter-imperialist conflicts.
The logic of the market economy is such that a new world inter-imperialist war is on the agenda in an historic sense. This does not mean it is inevitable a turn in tide of class struggle in the favour of the oppressed could reverse such a development -but that the tendency is in that direction. In the September issue of International Viewpoint Far right in Europe The rats break for cover: Francois Vercammen: special features V As Trotsky noted: "Capitalism produces... equilibrium, disrupts it, restores it anew...In the sphere of inter-state relations the disruption of equilibrium means war...".
The victory of the market over the political suicide that was Stalinism has opened up a new era of inter-imperialist competition, disruption and war.
There will be a new bout of imperialist competition to attempt to create a new international division of labour — one that will reflect the real balance of economic power between different imperialist centres. The last decade of the twentieth century will probably be viewed in retrospect as one which witnessed the opening battles of World War Three.
Such a global conflict will be pre-figured by struggles for both regional power and inter-imperialist interventions into spheres of influence. In this context, the Gulf War, the US invasion of Somalia, the break up of Yugoslavia and the growing instability of the Ukraine take on a new meaning.
In the era of imperialism, even: a quest for regional zones of influence presupposes a readiness to fight on a world scale for a resolution of these differences.
It is the Far East which will probably witness the first struggle for power at a regional level which could be the precursor of a new world war.
The end of the Cold War threw the economic, political and military alliances in the Far East into the melting pot. The regional power balance established as a product of the Chinese Communist Party's seizure of power in 1949 has held in check any tendency toward generalised war in the region between the capitalist powers for four decades. This situation was a reflection of the world balance of power.
The presence of United States military forces across the Far East created a framework within which national ruling classes could deal with insurgent groups, and within which regional capitalist rivalries could be managed. At the same time the United States was prepared to send in as many troops as it took to contain the growing threat of communist insurgency.
In this period the United States never achieved global ascendancy - it was merely the strongest representative of the capitalist market in retreat. The victory of the NLF insurgents in Vietnam signalled to the world ruling classes that "containment" was not working and what was required was a counter-offensive to destroy the heartlands of the post-capitalist planned economies.
Now however the Cold War security framework of the Far East is in the process of falling apart. The stakes over the next decade are for the domination of the Far East.
The focus of international attention has recently been on North Korea and its supposed drive to develop a nuclear bomb. As usual, there was more heat than light produced by the supposed "crisis". The core issue-was not whether North Korea had a bomb (even different departments of the US government, State and Defense, could not agree on that) but the implications of such a development for Japan, China and the United States.
The key question was who was able to provide leadership in the region.
The Cold War nuclear umbrella ("we are protecting you but you are under our dominance") provided by the United States to its Cold War allies, and hence regional power status, are under question. It was, therefore, crucial for the United States to prove that it was still the main power-broker to prevent the Japanese ruling class getting nuclear weapons. Yet the outcome of the "crisis" was that China, the Philippines and Japan all utilised their growing influence to ensure that the US-proposed trade embargo against North Korea did not go ahead. This was a further signal to the Asia-Pacific nations that a wind of change was sweeping through the region. All of the major regional powers recognise this; a race for local domination is unfolding as a precursor of a struggle for global power. The starting gun for this race was sounded when the United States withdrew its forces from the Subic and Clark Naval Bases in the Philippines in late 1991.
The withdrawal from the Philippines was carried out at the insistence of the Filipino legislature and against the wishes of the US government. It signified both developing Far East assertiveness and the weakening of United States power in the region. In this context the US-Japan Security Treaty, which effectively gave the US political and military leadership in the Far East and Pacific region, is already beginning to look somewhat antiquated. In response, the Japanese ruling class is moving towards a remilitarisation of its foreign policy. The usual route, by way of an international peace keeping force, has already been achieved with the Japanese Defence Forces' presence in Cambodia. Thus, the idea that Japan can send forces to other parts of the Far East has crept onto the agenda.
Japan, which spends three per cent of its GNP on the military the largest expenditure in the whole of Asia and third in the world), is a mere percentage point away from regional military superiority. In such a circumstance it will become a rival rather than an ally of the United States.
It is within this context that Japan's launch of a satellite-carrying rocket in early 1992 can be understood. The simple fact is that the H-Il, the first rocket to be entirely designed and built in Japan, could easily be used as an inter-continental ballistic missile.
Add to this Japan's stockpile of both plutonium and expertise Name Address Post Code/Country Telephone and it seems obvious that rather than Japan's military nuclear capacity being on the drawing board it has plans completed; it is possible to imagine the Japanese ruling class in a period of serious tension producing nuclear missiles in a short space of time. Of course, such developments are coupled with concessions by the Japanese bourgeoisie on the question of war crimes, for example the enforced prostitution of tens of thousands of Far East women during the Second World War and Tokyo's responsibility for the Nanjing Massacres of 1937 where some 150,000 Chinese were killed in two months by occupying Japanese forces. Earlier this year Shigeto Nagano, the Japanese Minister of Justice, was given unusually short shrift and forced to resign for suggesting that the Nanjing Massacre was a hoax. Japan clearly wishes to build an alliance which will ensure that the Chinese do not get gain hegemony in the Far East. It is this struggle for regional power that will be central in the coming period. It is likely that the US will be reduced to the role of an important but secondary player in this scenario. This explains Japan's open and friendly attitude towards Vietnam, which included ignoring the US embargo on Vietnam for two years, as that country makes its way towards a market economy. Indeed Japan is using its enormous reserves to develop its own Socialist Outlook is the world's bestselling marxist fortnightly. Subscribers also get theory+practice, our in-depth supplement, and Liberation!, the red, green and feminist youth quarterly, which add to the excellent international and labour movement news, interviews and analysis that Socialist Outlook is well known for. Over the last year Socialist Outlook's articles have been republished world-wide - in Belgium, Spain, Denmark, New Zealand, Germany, Portugal, the United States, France and Australia - but our subscribers got them first. For just £25 (make your cheque payable to Outlook Inter-1 national readers in the UK can get a cut-rate combined subscription with International Viewpoint.
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Send to: Distribution, PO Box 1109, London, N4 2UU. theory practice 7 • Asian war on the Horizon? • page two imperialist ambitions through its overseas aid policy. Japan currently spends more on aid in Asia in a month than the US does in a year. Moreover, Japan has replaced the US as the global leader in aid provision at $30 billion in 1992 — more than that of the US and three times that of Britain.
It is not at all unlikely that the Japanese will attempt to create an Indonesia-Philippines-Japan bloc to thwart the development of China as the regional power. It is also likely that such a bloc will be used to undermine the US presence in the region.
Japan would not be alone in undermining Washington's position in the Far East. Such a development is already under way with the suggestion by the Malaysian government that the Far Eastern nations create a power bloc that explicitly excludes the United States and Australia. It is no coincidence that Malaysia has become the first non-Communist state to purchase and operate the advanced Mig 29 jet.
In May 1994 Goh Chok Tong, the prime minister of Singapore, argued that Asia could form a trade bloc in response to NAFTA and the European Union. In such suggestions lie the outlines of future global trade wars and regional power blocs.
Earlier this year, The Nation, a leading Thai daily, carried a lead article suggesting that by 2010 the US-Thai security relationship would no longer be significant. It went on to suggest that by then the US would be regarded a "Friendly Enemy Number One" and that a Japan-Thai security relationship would have replaced the current set of arrangements.
Ethnic Chinese populations in South East Asia CHINA INDIA BURMA timated several hundred thou CAMBODIA Estimated 10,000 MA DYSA CINCADORI 5.4 million 2 ot population 30% of population That Japan would be a beneficiary of such a process in the Far East has not gone unnoticed. Liberal and bourgeois academics in the West have already produced numerous books on this theme - perhaps the most noticeable being Friedmann Bartu's work "The Ugly Japanese: Nippon's Economic Empire in Asia" in which Japan is described as "sneaky", 'arrogant", "bullying" and "inhumane".
The feeling is to some degree mutual. Japanese press reaction to the breakdown of trade talks with the US last February was to rejoice that Japan could say. "No" to US demands. Security has clearly been replaced by economics as the key issue in relations between Tokyo and Washington.
The Chinese bureaucracy, which is developing the Chinese economy at a massive rate under the principles of "Socialism with Chinese characteristics", better known as market Stalinism, has doubled expenditure on the military since 1988. It intends to increase it by 25 per cent in 1995, understanding that simply sitting tight and waiting for regional supremacy is not enough.
The increased militarisation of the Chinese state is based on a qualitative upgrade of its military hardware and an understanding that a struggle for regional hegemony is underway.
The Chinese are not engaged in a rush for markets, or a desire to export capital. But they are concerned both by a potential Far East alliance against them and intend to claim the South China Sea as its own inland waterway.
At one and the same time the Chinese bureaucracy are aware of the fragility of their own sys1.5% of population Hong Kong THAI ANN of population 1.5% of population INDONECIA 127 of population tem but wish to lay claim to disputed regional resources that will enable the Chinese version of "socialism" to survive. Aware of the fate of Soviet Stalinism, the China Daily in November 1992 carried an unsigned commentary warning the world not to bully China, as happened in the late 19th century, and not attempt to put it under semi-colonial rule.
The Chinese worries on this score have been recently underlined by a report in Janes Defence Weekly noting that there are currently 600 warlords operating in central China — all of whom appear to have access to Chinese army weapons.
At the same time the rapid industrialisation underway in China is both providing the basis for its development as the regional superpower and for the implosion of the social system and political power structure.
Chinese fears have also been reinforced by US, Russian and European commercial and military sales to all of the Far East nations that come within the Chinese sphere of influence.
Posed with such problems Chinese Stalinism aims to flex its muscles regionally and to maintain repression internally.
In July 1993 China began to carry out military manoeuvres in Guangdong province, which has the South China Sea to its south, with the clear intention of sending out a message to other regional powers, in particular Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia. Such a re-orientation has included the development of a rapid reaction force for the South China Sea. These manoeuvres were commonly held to be the largest of their type outside of war time with the aim of projection military power outside of China's borders since 1949 in this region.
It is also widely suspected that the growing number of "pirate"
attacks taking place in the South China Sea are being carried out by the Chinese Navy in a surreptitious attempt to develop control over the area.
It is notable that since the US evacuation from the Philippines in 1991 piracy in the region has grown remarkably. Between March 1991 and June 1993 Tokyo claims to have noted 78 cases
of Japanese and foreign vessels being boarded or shot at by Chinese vessels.
China's own concerns are redoubled by the wave of anti-Chinese feeling that has appeared in the past half decade across South East Asia. The government inspired anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia earlier this year were indicative of a general mood in the region.
As a result of migration in the 19th century there are now more than 22 million ethnic Chinese spread through out South East Asia. This layer of ethnic Chinese now play a major role in South East Asian finance and industry. Such is their influence that they invest three times as much in China than the United States and Japan put together.
The tensions in the South China Sea are reflected in numerous territorial disputes across the Far East. The unresolved nature of these disputes, particularly that over the oil, gas and other mineral reserves in the Spratly Archipelago and a lack of a regional security framework have been other factors, in addition to the decline in US power, that explain the militarisation of the region over the past five years.
Taiwan has bought 150 US F-16 fighters to the value of $6 billion and has acquired 60 Mirage aircraft from France at the cost of $4 billion; it is also upgrading its navy. Thailand has purchased an aircraft carrier from Spain, six frigates from China and 18 F-16s from the United States.
The Philippines has spent the last two years carrying out a major refit of its air and sea forces. Add to this the purchase by Indonesia of 35 ex-East German warships (half of the GDR navy) and the decision by the Vietnamese government to increase military spending by $505m in 1995 and the situation begins to look ominous.
To get some kind of perspective on this it is enough to note that For almost half a century the continued extension of the planned economy across the globe proved to be a straightjacket that prevented inter-imperialist rivalry maturing and resulting in war.
This tendency of monopoly capitalism to produce war was offset by the need to prevent the extension of the Bolshevik revolution 'and its post-capitalist Stalinist deformation spreading across the globe.
The international ruling classes had clearly taken to heart Trotsky's notion that war is the engine of revolution.
There was, then, a certain amount of enforced honour amongst imperialist thieves. The United States was the most powthe Far East is now a bigger arms market MYANMAH than the Middle East.
The disintegration of the regional security arrangements in aninman addition to na- Sca ture of the Andaman & militarisation taking hold, all nations are buying weapons to fight external wars of the rather than the counterinsurgency wars of the past, make for a potent cocktail. 1000 km Chinese manoeuvres in the South China Sea are clearly an example of this. Even more to the point is the decision by Malaysia to appoint Datuk Harun as the Armed Forces HQ Commander - the first time a naval commander has been appointed to this position in Malaysian history - at a time when Malaysia is in dispute with the Philippines over oil exploration of Palawan Island.
Add to these features the numerous land disputes that riddle the region and the struggle for resources in the South China Sea and it seems that a struggle for regional dominance through war will be the probable outcome in the Far East.
It is the South China Sea and the resources therein that is already proving to be a source of serious tension. Not only is this area a trade route vital to Japan but it is also the home of the main territorial disputes in the Far East which might lead to war.
Most important of these is the Spratlys — a far flung archipelago of more than 90 islands that erful nation in the free-market world and the bi-polar world was established an maintained from 1945 until 1989. In 1945 the United States emerged as the most powerful nation on earth. In occupation and demilitarisation of its two most threatening rivals (Japan and Germany) and with a massive technological lead over the devastated USSR. Even at this time the United States was unable to prevent consummation of the Chinese Revolution and the loss of one quarter of the globe to economic planning and repression of the free-market.
The collapse in Eastern Europe has lead some to suggest that the United States is now an unchaltheory practice 7 • Asian war on the Horizon? • page three CHINA THAILAND VIETNAM Spratty is Bandar Ser ^ 7. BRUNET INGAPORfarm. sen straddle key shipping lanes and which has enormous oil reserves in territorial waters and whose sovereignty is claimed by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. Of these only Brunei does not have troops in the Spratly Archipelago.
The dispute over the archipelago has been rumbling on for more than six years since the Chinese and Vietnamese navies fought a battle in the region.
The new aspect of regional instability and the remilitarisation of the region has given this dispute a qualitatively different meaning. The Chinese have claimed the whole region as being under its sovereignty. One look at the map shows that this extraordinary demand is a clear provocation to all other regional powers with a claim.
In spite of this Vietnam and the Philippines have been engaged in preliminary searches of the area which they claim are in their sovereignty. In June this year, in action which Beijing described as a serious escalation, the Vietnamlenged super-power in a uni-polar Alejandro Bendana, former General Secretary for Foreign Affairs in the Sandinista government, has argued that we are now entering a period of US hegemony. Are we about to face a period of Pax Americana?
This proposal does not stand up to proper examination. With its main enemy shattered, the only superiority that the US has is that of military superiority. Yet this will only be a temporary phenomenon — because the central irony of post Second World War history is that the demilitarisation of Japanese and German foreign policy provided the basis on which US economic power would be challenged by them * Taipei + TAIWAN Macao Hong Kong South China Philippine Sea Celebes crap Bonda.Sca - Flores Sea MOSCARE ese gave a contract to Mobil Oil to explore in the Patag Kawak and GSEC areas.
The Filipino company Alcan Petroleum (APP) is also rushing to put its fingers in the pie and has begun to carry out what was supposed to be secret data gathering about reserves of Palawan Island. This was uncovered by a serious blunder on the part of Eduardo Hernandez, head of APP, who announced the contract to carry out the work with the US company Vaalco Energy to a press conference. A blunder because Philippines president Fidel Ramos had publicly argued for joint US-Filipino exploration.
What the Filipino government is really thinking is underlined by Hernandez's comment that they "want to be there before the cake has been baked". Such a perspective is strengthened by Fidel Ramos' recent assertion that the refit of the Filipino Navy is based on his determination to defend Filipino claims to territory in the South China Sea. Malaysia has also claimed rights to explore in this region. once the destruction of 1917 had been achieved.
Disputed archipelago the South China S ASEAN member states: Brunei. Indonesia, Malaysia hippies, oligapore, bulandra Pacific Occan At the same time, China and Taiwan have agreed to give Chevron a contract to jointly exploit areas of the Spratly and Paracel Islands and have promised Chevron military protection. Early in 1994, according to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, China acquired a Canadian drilling ship to explore the Blue Dragon Offshore Field which is next to the Crestone Field which is being surveyed on behalf of China by Crestone oil company of the United States.
The Chinese government has recently purchased 34 SU-27 long range aircraft from Russians and has expanded an airstrip and constructed covered hangars on Woody Island in the Paracels, which will allow the Chinese airforce to refuel for future military operations in the Spratlys. It is only a matter of time before a strength decides what the mind boggling númber of multi-national Far east Asian and Pacific forums have been unable to negotiate — who controls the South China Sea. Such world military leadership only reinforced the unevenness
of economic development that is at the core of international capitalist development and which has put the US ruling class at a long run disadvantage.
In every single sector of the economy both Japan and western Europe have either surpassed, matched or superseded the United States. A few examples: 80 per cent of the semi-conductors used in the US military's high-tech weapons come from Japan and the Far East. In 1945 the United States' share of world manufacturing production was 50 per cent. It is now less than 30 per cent — it has also been surpassed by Japan as an exporter of manufactured goods.
This decline is even reflected in the ultimate symbol of US individualism — the motor car. In 1962 52 per cent of world car production was situated in the United States. By the mid 1980s to less than 22 per cent - that is in third place to Japan on 25 per cent and Europe on 34 per cent. The attempt by Reaganism to both destroy the USSR and to maintain US dominance has left the US economy with a hangover that makes it the world's largest debtor nation, which can only continue to function on the basis of continued massive Japanese government purchases of US government bonds.
Such is the changing balance of forces that when Colombia Pictures makes another film glorifying the militarist adventurism of the US ruling class it can do so safe in the knowledge that completion will be guaranteed because it is now a subsidiary of cash rich Sony — a Japanese multinational.
Military superiority, without economic base on which to maintain it, can only be a passing phase; there is little to suggest that the US economy will be able to achieve any more than equality with Japan and Germany in the medium term.
The notion of Pax Americana in the post Cold War World is, therefore, mythical. The solidity of US global power will melt into the air of new inter-imperialist rivalry.
The incapacity of the US to enforce its will onto the situation in the former Yugoslavia is a current example of this lack of dominance. The Gulf War, however, provides the clearest example of the dilemma the US faces.
Trumpeted as the high point of US power the facts of the Gulf War point to a very different picture. Stomping on Grenada and getting rid of a protege in Panama were relatively simple operations that required only minimal political agreement and no military theory practice 7 • Asian war on the Horizon? • page four support. The destruction of the Iraqi army was quite a different matter.
The US had five months in which to prepare its assault on Iraq. In Saudi Arabia there was a ready made landing site with no prospect of hostile fire during the logistical build-up; almost half of the ships used in this build up were not from the United States.
At the same time the German bourgeoisie were swallowing the former East Germany, Russia was still trapped in the mire of the CIS and the collapse of the Stalinist regime. Thatcher was being bundled out of office and Japan was incapable of participating in such a military adventure. As Henry Kissinger observed these were "circumstances unlikely to be repeated in the future".
The lack of US confidence was reflected in the use of massively overwhelming air and ground power which to overpower an army from a nation with a population 7 per cent the size of the US (16 million) and an economy less than 5 per cent of the United States. Iraq, with only Yasser Arafat as an ally faced not only the United States but an imperialist coalition.
It is not unlikely that at the back. of the Defense Department's mind was the British humiliation at Suez in 1956 — surely the cause celebre of a declining world power going down to defeat. The US response to the Iragi invasion of Kuwait was summed up by Ernest Mandel in advance in his book "The Meaning of the Second World War" when he noted that "the most violent and murderous causes of imperialist aggression are expressions of relative weakness rather then strength."
What are the results of the Gulf War? Iran is now re-armed and re-emerging as a dominant regional power in the Middle East whilst the US relapsed back into the Vietnam Syndrome at the first sign of a bloodstained north American GI being dragged through the streets of a village in So it is important to get US power into context. Iraq is not China and Somalia is not Japan. There will be no allied coalition to protect US interests in the Far East. If there was ever a period when the term "uni-polar" was appropriate then the United States did achieve the appearance of global hegemony for the 14 month period between the fall of the Wall and the bombing of Baghdad. That was the precise length of "Pax Americana" and the "New World Order". ooks in depth at key is sues of socialist analysis and strategy. Eash issue examines a subject of importanse to socialists in greater depth - and at greater length - than is possible in Sorialist Outlookitself. BACK ISSUES AVAILABLE 1 The challenge of lesbian and gay liberation. 2 The survival of the Irish national question. 4 No Historic Compromise with Imperialism. 5 Can Marxism Survive? 6 Revolution & CounterRevolution In Nicaragua Send 50p for each copy to Socialist Outlook, PO Box 1109, London, N4 2UU. HALF-PRICE BUNDLES Many Sorialist Outlook readers will be interested in carrying forward the discussions reflected in f+p by taking copies to sell. Bundles in multiples of 10 sarry a 50% discount.
it offered just 8.5 per cent.
Other workers' struggles in recent weeks have included:
• 5000 workers at South Africa Breweries are soon to vote on whether to strike for a 11.5 per cent wage increase.
• 1000 court interpreters struck over discriminatory salary allowances. The strike paralysed South Africa's courts. Justice minister Dullah Omar expressed support for the workers and the interpreters sought the support of the South African Prisoners' Organisation for Human Rights. The strikers agreed to return to work on July 28 after Omar promised to meet their demands.
• Shunters in the PWV went on strike on July 21. and 22 for higher wages, severely disrupting the rail system.
•Musicians marched through Braamfontein on July 21 to recover outstanding royalties from record companies and to demand more airplay for local artists on radio and television.
• Thousands of striking building SOCIALIST OUTLOOK No. 68, September 10 1994, Page 11 WHICH people shall govern the new South Africa? The working class or the old white bosses?
THE HORIZON? ASIAN WAR ON
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