Berlusconi's Forza
Italia, the federalist Northern League and the neo-fascist MSI has stepped into the vacuum created by the collapse of the corrupt centre parties who have run Italy for decades.
Here LIVIO MAITAN looks at the significance of the elections and the weakness of the parties of the workers' movement. THE WINNING coalition is far from stable. Public arguments have raged between Berlusconi, Northern League head Umberto Bossi and Gianfranco Fini of the MSI.
Attempts to form a government have been postponed until after April 15, with no guarantee of success. New elections could yet be on the horizon.
This is a new phase in-the crisis of political leadership in Italy, which broke out in 1992. A coalition distinguished by its inclusion of neo-fascists now has to form a government.
This coalition does not have an absolute majority of votes cast (42.9 percent for the Chamber of Deputies, 39.9 percent for the Senate), but because of the 'first-past-the-post' electoral system, it has an absolute majority of seats in the Chamber and is only three votes short in the Senate.
The political and ideological weakening of the workers movement parties during the last 15 years and the tearing apart of socio-economic structures because of the long wave of stagnation, meant that political divisions only partially corresponded to social divisions.
The Progressive pole - dominated by the Party of the Democratic Left (PDS) and the Party of Communist Refoundation (PRC) - won its votes primarily amongst the working class and sections of the radicalised petitbourgeoisie.
However, the elections confirmed that the Northern League is supported not only by sections of the middle and small bourgeoisie but also on a much smaller scale, by workers.
The results reconfirmed that the neo-fascists have a fairly large electoral base, already indicated by the municipal elections in Rome and Naples. Forza Italia was also successful in popular quarters of major cities in the North, alongside spectacular results in regions of the increases. South.
The industrial bourgeoisie appeared divided. Minority sectors of the employers organisation Confindustria opted for Berlusconi whilst some put themselves on the side of the Progressives, with even a few standing as candidates. Most continued to support - discreetly - the centrist parties.
Naturally there will be new realignments and Confindustria has already said it is prepared to support a government led by Berlusconi.
Such a government would represent a real turning point. rurther conservative and reacwith torrential rain, reduced a tionary measures will be added to those already adopted by the Ciampin government. There will be further attacks on the remnants of the welfare state and political institutions will be changed in a more authoritarian direction.
But it is not clear to what extent a Berlusconi government could produce stability in a country which has always known acute social conflicts and a combative working class.
The right-wing are divided, illustrated by the often heated polemics during the electoral campaign and in its immediate waKe.
Berlusconi will have great difficulty in carrying out his mediating act whilst making an opening towards part of the centre, which may prove necessary from the viewpoint of Parlia mentary balance.
Other factors could set off further instability. The European elections in June will be conducted under proportional representation, with alignments perhaps very different from those of March 27-28.
Finally, the political developments take place alongside an economy which, despite partial improvements, remains marked by stagnation and the prospect of increased unemployment.
The ruling class has to gamble on a heterogenous coalition, the most important component of which was only set up in the last two months by Berlusconi.
He is considered by the 'historic' bourgeoisie to be an 'upstart' without any 'tradition' -expressing a totally superficial overall ideology and his party is composed of members whose effectiveness is largely untested.
The rights's main opportunity is the weakness of the left, who were rejected because they didn't have an alternative to a disintegrating political system. The PDS secretary, Achille Occhetto, never ceased proclaiming the supposed gains of the existing government.
For its part the PRC appeared as the left wing of the Progressives but not as a force intent on imposing a radically different dynamic, an anti-capitalist perspective.
A recomposition of the bourgeois camp remains precarious but the recomposition of the workers' movement hasn't even cared WORLD NEWS