AFTER THEIR second meeting towards the end of April, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams and the SDLP's John Hume put out a statement saying their purpose was to try to develop an 'overall political strategy to establish peace and justice in Ireland'.
It went on to say 'we accept that the Irish people as a whole have a right to self determination'. Sadly, neither peace or self-determination is the likely result.
Losing base The talks are mainly Hume's own doing. During the Brooke/Mayhew talks Hume realised he could no longer participate in the internal settlement proposed by the British as the risk of the SDLP's base sliding towards Sinn Fein was too great.
Saving the SDIP from Sinn Fein was the reason why Margaret Thatcher had swallowed the 1985 AngleIrish Agreement. Hume insists that Sinn Fein must be involved in any peace talks for no other reason than to protect his flank.
Sinn Fein are desperate to talk to anyone. There is a degree of war weariness among the Nationalists. Sinn Fein has failed to make inroads in the South and while the IRA is militarily capable of sustaining a long campaign, there is increasing recognition that the armed struggle alone is not enough. The 'Options for a Labour Government' document is in reality a plan to stabilise British rule in Ireland for another 20 years.
The Brits and, to a lesser extent, Dublin see Hume's talks with Adams as a maverick move but are using them to find out, as one Brit minister said, 'what Sinn Fein's price is'.
Both governments, while tacitly encouraging the talks, have kept their distance from them. Major refused a formal report from Hume and Dublin dithered between public approval and embarrassment at the ten days it took Hume to report to them on what had happened.
Denounced by the Unionists for forming a "pan nationalist front', under pressure from Loyalist attacks on SDLP members and, most significantly, losing previously unquestioning support in Dublin, Hume is pursuing a high risk strategy that is even being questioned by some leading members of his own party. The sudden suspension of the talks with Gerry Adams and the report of 'progress' is a measure of that pressure.
Hume had to talk to Sinn Fein, and he had to justify it by reporting 'progress'. Gerry Adams: joint statement with Hume This "progress' has also led to speculation, not just about the conditions for an IRA ceasefire but about what kind of settlement would be acceptable in the longer run.
Thus the signs (for example, Martin McGuiness's interview in the Guardian) are that Sinn Fein and the IRA are feeling "Sinn Fein are desperate to talk to anyone. There is a degree of war weariness the IRA is militarily capable of sustaining a long campaign, there is increasing recognition that the armed struggle alone is not enough." they were supposed to be discussing the moribund Mayhew talks.
Hume's hopes now rest with Dublin or Washington. Irish Labour leader Dick Spring's earlier suggestion that, if the Unionists would not agree to a deal the two governments should negotiate over their heads, was not well received by the British.
The chances that Dublin can wring something from them are now even slimmer after Major's restatement of his unionism to the Tory Conference and his increasing imprisonment by the right.
Hume's belief that the US can be persuaded to pressure the British into making concessions ignores the fact that the Tories are depending on the Unionists to protect them at Westminster. The big question for all the pro-Brit forces is whether they can offer enough to split the republicans while keeping the union intact.
The British ruling class has other options in attempting to deal with the long crisis of its Irish policy. There are always McNamara's proposals, praised by the Labour Committee on Ireland and Labour Party Irish Society for 'opening up the debate and promoting new thinking', among the Nationalists. Sinn Fein has failed to make inroads in the South and while but in reality a plan to stabilise British rule in Ireland for another 20 years.
Supporters of withdrawal are being urged to back McNamara against the closet Unionists of 'Democracy Now' such as Kate Hoey MP, who are held up by the LCI/LPIS as the main threat to achieving Irish self-determination.
Stampede
The real game is to stampede the majority of Labour Party members who support British withdrawal into the joint sovereignty' camp or at the very least, to split the pro-withdrawal forces assembled during the 1980's. This amounts to a re-run of the politics of the old "Time to Go' campaign at its worst.
With such a shaky government in Westminster, far seeing members of the ruling class are probably reckoning on joint sovereignty being a better bet to secure British rule - under a Labour government of course; though probably without Kevin McNamara.
In contrast to all this cynical jockeying, manoeuvring and hypocisy, socialists stand for self determination for Ireland. There is no British solution.