the country and only 19% are satisfied with the performance of John Major. These are the worst ratings for a government since records began.
The present level of Tory disarray is qualitatively different.
The sacking of Lamont was a public admission that britain is sat uh tne acpins of recession - a recession now gripping much of Europe.
Clarke's appointment as Chancellor has left the Tory right feeling betrayed and anaco over ccon policy:
By-elections These coonomic conditions were the driving force behind their electoral catas cils. Now face the Christchurch by-election threatens another political disaster. John Major's political survival is in the balance - it now seems he has until next year to change things or go.
The dominant economic problem is how Clarke can reduce the ES0 billion achei in paone spenuing = a doricit which is expected to rise by a further £10 billion next year.
Tory economic policy demands this reduction for two reasons the unaccept. able level of the deficit itself and the Maastricht criteria for Buropean Monetary Union, which require deficits to be cut to no more than 3% of GDP.
Bitner way, ine sones require i mas sive attack on the welfare state and in. creases in taxation. Clarke's Autumn budget is likely to contain the biggest round of cuts and job losses ever seen in one package.
The goverment's chronic weakness has not stopped its programme of legislation and attacks on the working class. Why can it go on with these attacks and The key factor is the abysmal lack of opposition from union leaders, the TUC, Labour's low-profile front bench, and in the work-places.
Yet there has been a modest but important change. The 'new realists' are still in charge, but they face a crisis of confidence and perspective. The recent stinging attack on the Labour leadership by right wing GMB leader John Edmonds shows the new pressures which are there.
Scargill
The willingness of TGWU leader Bill Morris to echo Arthur Scargill's warnings that the unions might take their affilition fees elsewhere if John Smith succeeds in breaking their historic links with Labour also indicate a new tension in the labour burcattacy The coal crisis last October was a real opportunity for a radical change. This was only partially realised and the miners have now been defeated. Paradoxically. tough ocrcarco over pit closures, Inc miners have been a catalyst for a limited movement as a whole. sunk - at least for this year. full force.
Hunt personally pocketed £55 million, and the Inland BY BROUGHTER Time to engineer a national strike to put pressure on Tories revival of struggle and confidence in the The victory of the teaching unions over SATS was the biggest defeat suffered by the government since the poll tax debatic. Anotier dory tragsaip nas ocea The Timex strike and the response to it is another example of the important but limited change of mood. Most strikes are a response to massive attacks on the workers involved, but at last the begin. nings of resistance are emerging as the employers' offensive goes ahead with The resulting higher levels of struggle have been reflected in the union conferences. The left won a majority in the elections for the NCU Executive, and the conference swung to the left - as did those of the MSF, UCW and NALGO.
of years. Again this shows a marked rise in confiAlthough there will be much arm twisting of union delegates over the summer, there are already signs that compromises are being discussed in order to prevent John Smith facing a disastrous platform defeat over the issue of union links at Labour's conference in October.
Socialists should not exaggerate this AERO uptum in struggle and renewed confidence but it does open up new opportunities for the left. We should not look for snectacular developments, although they Anti-union laws The movement is starting from a long way back. New realism is still there. The anti-union laws are still there and being strentinenco and the cct of activists na been dramatically reduced. We should expect that the present up-tum will continue and strengthen.
The next stage may well need an all-out strike by & nabonar union to set it ou the ground. Increased confidence - the vital ingredient for strike action is there, and will continue to generate a higher level of class struggle than the last couple The example of the SATs victory is important for the left. It was a victory won not from the top of the teaching unions but from their base. The boycott was fought for by the left and in particular the Socialist Teachers" Alliance in the NUT. The opportunities for such organisation are now opening up elsewhere: they must not be missed.
chairman of both the Conservative Party and Lonro. He
ITS TIME TO PAGINEER A NEW