LOOK went to press on Monday, it seems just possible that SOcalled'concessions' over the timing of pit closures will be enough to scrape the government through the crucial Commons vote on the issue on Wednesday. But not even that much is certain.
In any case, the changes don't alter anything fundamental; it is slow motion destruction of the coal industry instead of sudden death. The fight to stop the closures continues.
Even if it manages a Houdini-style parliamentary escape act, Major's is wounded - possibly fatally The political loss of face inflicted by even this limited backdown will be immense.
Split The government's latest problems come on top ofthe Conservatives' deep split on Maastricht, with its recent conference revealing a party on the brink of open warfare; it's economic credibility has disintegrated in the wake of Black Wednesday; even the Mellor affair has made it an object of popular ridicule.
Having won April'selection, the Tories now face all the horrendous consequences of Thatcherism and its destruction Britain's industrial base.
This, combined with world recession and the crisis over European unity, is devastating the British economy. More than four million unemployed are paying the price.
But it is not just those faced with redundancy, wage freeze or public spending cuts that are in revolt. Huge sections of the Tories' base amongst small business people and other sections of the middle class are also being savaged by Major's recessionary policies.
Fatal blow
While this revolt has crystallised around pit closures, concessions on this issue cannot be allowed to let the Tories off the hook; a real possibility exist now to deal the government a fatal blow.
Numerous groups of workers are in the firing line. Throughout this summer groups of local government workers have been striking against cutbacks and redundancies. Healthworkers face mass redundancies through Andren Time to put Major's nose out of joint! hospital closures and other cutbacks. Privatisation of the Royal Mail and British Rail are just round the corner. Teachers face compulsory redundancies for the first time. Now is the time to forge a powerful public sector alliance against the Tory attacks.
An effective alliance however can only be based on industrial action, and the best basis for that will be created by a 'yes' vote for strike action by miners.
But beyond the miners, industrial action must be conducted against the cascade of redundancies - whether declared already or in the pipe line through privatisation. In the present climate they have already announced. Next Sunday's demonstration called by he TUC may well be massive, but the Tories and the employers will not be shifted by even a monster turnout on a Sunday. The TUC must call a national day priority. of strike action to support the miners. This is the vital next step, a central focus to follow up Sunday's protest. It will of course mean defying the anti-union laws. But never was there an issue on which the chances of getting mass stoppages was dustrial greater; and on which the possibility of effectively using the law against mass stoppages less. Useless Labour The response of the Labour leadership, a national petition campaign, has been predictably useless; and given the weight of TUC the absolute minium they could get away with.
The real danger now is that given the minimal concessions' by the government the TUC and Labour leaders will let the government off the hook.
If the government is not defeated in the Commons we now face the prospect of a iong drawn-out battle to defend the miners' jobs. The building of miners support groups nationwide is a first The networks which were created during the miners' strike must be reactivated.
A new political situation has been created by the outcry over pit closures. That outcry did not arise simply because of public sympathy with the miners, huge though that has been. It arose because the pit closures, signalling the virtual end of the coal industry, symbolised the regime of mass unemployment and invandalism which threatens the livelihood of millions. It is a expression of deep-seated anger from those on the receiving end of the crisis of British capitalism.
The opportunity exists in this new situationto impose devastating defeats on the Tories and drive them from office - if we strike