The assassination of Ravij Ghandi has thrown Indian politics into turmoil. But the major factor in was the strong surge of the Hindu fundamentalist 4000 mass election rallies across India, and is the decisive new force in Indian politics. Oliver New spoke to ACHIN VANAIK, a leading member of the ICS, Indian section of the Fourth International, about the crisis of Indian politics. Vanaik is the author of The Painful Transition, the best Marxist analysis of India, published by Verso. Oliver New: What will be the immediate effects of Ghandi's assassination?
Achin Vanaik: The immediate effect is going to be a blow to the Congress party. Congress used to dominate Indian politics, but its domination was eroded by its failure to do anything about poverty. Now Congress is in a mess; they needed a really national figure to lead them, but without Rajiv they haven't got one.
But Congress should get a sympathy vote because of the assassination. The elections will either result in a small majority for Congress, or a new coalition. They will show whether the BJP Cal make dramatic breakthrough. Even if they don't make an immediate breakthrough, the BJP will be a crucial factor for some time to come. the general election campaign until his assassination Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The right wing BJP held tion there id the ON: When Ravij was assassinated commentators talked of this death of one man as a threat to Indian "democracy'. Why are individuals so important in India?
AV: It's to do with the 'plebiscitary' character of the political system. In the political centre in India you have the Congress and its offshoot/imitator, the Janata Dal. On the main ques tions of the economy nothing separates them politically; they have moved well to the right of the post-independence social democratic consensus.
Both these formations are coalitions with a shifting class base and no clear cut programme to hold them together. So the role of central leading personalities is vital to appeal to a multi-class, multicaste electorate and haveareally national appeal. It was this factor which made Indira Ghandi promote her son Sanjay, and attor noth ineir eeatas. made Congress turn to Rajiv. In addigrowing volatility of Indian politics. That can be summed up in a single phrase: the failure of Congress.
Outside of the Congress and Janata Dal you have cadre parties to the left and right - the BJP on the right and the Communist Party (India) and the Communist Party (Marxist) on the left. They are more structured, with a firmer programme, SO their leadership crises are not so. severe.
The dilemma is that Congress is the only real national party, but with no leader to compare in stature with the other party eno ers. ON: But there don't seem to be fundamental political differences between the major parties? b AV: In fact there are, on the crucial questions of economic policy and secularism. Both within Congress and Janata Dal there are social democratic forces which favour public ownership. And obviously the Communist parties have a more left wing econonuc programme But in practice of course Congress and Janata Dal have managed capitalism; and the BJP have no clear alternative economic policy, as yet. But the crucial i сіттетелсе secularism. While Congress, Janata Dal and the •resent premier Chandra Shekur are Prime Minister Chandra Shekhur Hindu cultural nationalism of the BJP type is of growing importance. I think this is re lated both to alienation from the dominant Congress type of politics, and is in a certain sense a revolt against the impact of capitalist modernisation, which offers nothing for the untold millions of poor in India.
Nonetheless it is a remarkable phenomenon because Hinduism is such peculiar religion.
Unlike the Semitic/ prophetic religions it has no fixed texts, founders or doctrine. Thus there is little foundation for the forging of a common religiouspolitical identity. ON: But surely this could be created?
AV: Yes, but it's very difficult given the nature of Hinduism. But in any case, even if they can't yet forge a common vision of an alternative society, Hindu nationalism is extremely aangerous.
The conflicts last year over the decisions of the VP' Singh Janata Dal government to reserve some publicsector posts for the lower castes led to a big conflict which eventually brought the government down. Mobilisation along a caste or not paid off at all.
India is on the verge of falling into the debt trap. Last year the debt had risen to around $65 billion. As a result the IMF will tell India to implement a deflationary policy, and that will make life even harder for the masses. ON: How do you see the prospects for the left in India?
AV: There are two factors, the state of working class struggle and the organisations of the left. The organised workers are often very militant, but they are only a small proportion. Most workers are not organised, especially in the rural areas. The union bureaucrats claim they want to organise the workers, but that is largely hot air.
The situation of the left is also very difficult. The two Communist parties, the CP (I) and the CP (M), are both mass parties, but class-collaborationist Stalinist parties of the old type. They have held the regional ›overnment in bergai a Carela where they managed the system with only minimal reforms ticipated, toese er with the Bir, Both these parties in the ali inch pron bed up the VP Singh Janata