watershed, with the collapse in support for Yitzhak Shamir's and Labour's emergence as the largest party in the Knesset (parliament).
But does Labour's election mean new hope for the Palestinians? Just after the elections, French trotskyist paper Rouge asked Israeli revolutionary socialist MICHEL WARSHAWSKY what the elections meant for the future of the Middle East. search for a coalition partner. What explains Labour's success and the collapse of Likud? The election results are a punishment for Likud, who as the editorials say 'put two fingers up to the world. It couldn't answer either the security onsiderable economic dif ficulties facing the Israeli population.
is also paying for its ar rogant attitude, with which it treated its most important electoral base: the oriental Jews, those in the working class areas and the small towns.
This explains how Labour, was able to make a breakthrough and regain part of the electorate that they had lost over the last 15 years. Yitzhak Rabin's success is the product of Likud's votes sliding towards Labour and major changes in Labour's lists of candidates.
Rabin won a new credibility, of the old guard'. trademark was reinforced by a campaign which was vague terms of general direction, but extremely pro-security.
His past as 'victor of the Six Notebooks for Study and Research The Gulf War New World Order : 43229*x* July 11, 1992 Labour has nothing to offer Palestinian youth Shortly after the interview, Labour dropped its Day War' was vaunted, as was the fact that, while Minister of Defence, he deported more Palestinians than his Likud suc But Likud votes also went to the extreme right. This explains Tsomet's very significant breakinrougn, two to seven seats. This is an intransigent organisation led by General Raphael Eytan. It has put down roots in the labour movement rather than in the galaxy of religious extreme right parties.
Tsomet's breakthrough rep resents the section of opinion that is searching for 'cleaner', less corrupt politics, inde pendent of the administration At the other end of the spectrum, Meretz - a front of three left Shinui, and Mapam - gained from the same aspiration. In opinion polls, it stood out that between 20 and 30 per cent, particularly among youth, were hesitating between Meretz and Tsomet I'd add that among the factors in Likud's defeat, it never gave itself the means to crush he Intifada. Its policies came down to the status quo, and the romise that the future would e better.
But most of the electorate want an end to the status quo -either by military victory or a solution. Rabin and change.
What were the programmes af the various competing left-wing parties and • coalitieRs?
We should distinguish te tween the content of the No. 25 campaign and the programmes. Apart from the extreme right, all parties had one thing in common - no clear profile.
For example Likud never which cost millions of dollars in Us loan quarantees the colonies in the occupied territories. It knew it was very unpopular. keep away from concrete plans. new impetus to the Washington negotiations. As for Meretz, it carefully avoided mentioning the PLO or the Palestinian state. things are a bit different. Labour are deeply divided. Rabin's wing, the 'hawks', don't go beyond the persper Rabin has clearly indicated that the occupied territories would get autonomy within nine months. But he firmly rejects the perspective of a Palestinian state, confining himself to being more flexible over PLO participation in the been reinforced by the elec tions, presents autonomy as a transitional solution. It doesn't see the PLO as taboo and doesn't exclude the possibility. at some point, of a Palestinian though they don't say so openelectorate and its Knesset repre sentatives support the aim of withdrawal from the occupied territories - with the exception of Jerusalem - and Palestinian As for the Arab parties, their divisions were levastating They won slightly less than 50 er cent of Arab votes, but the act that they were dispersed between three parties (Democratic Front for Peace nd Equality, Arab Democratic Peace) meant that they didn't get the equivalent number of seats.
seren: reelected to the Knesse forthat resce. It even moreed a shame because these parties had a clear line. They are for negotiation with the PLO. withdrawal from the occupied territories, and the creation of an dependent Palestinian state i he West Bank and Gaze So what is Rabin going to He could get a parliamentary majority with the support of Meretz and the indirect support of the Arab parties, on a ine of opposing the right But that look like being his plan.
Heexplained things just after the results--he wants to regroup the centre parties. His project is to split Likud or forman alfiance with them on the basis of the policy of autonomy that Shamir himself put forward.
The follow-up to the so-called autonomy is left to the after. mathof the next elections in four years time. I think Rabin will do all in his power to integrate one of the religious parties, and then Likud, into his government.
At the moment, Rabin's tactics are unclear. Will he try form, at first, a majority of 65 to 70 deputies on the basis of an alliance with Meretz and one of the religious formations? And then negotiate with the other religious parties and Likud from a position of strength? You alluded to Israel's serious economic crisis. What changes in government economic policy are likely? Rabin will immediately try to reestablish normal relations with the Americans. From on confrontation with the US will be avoided, in an attempt to obtain substantial economic aid and provide funds for the social organisations close to Labour - for example the union federation Histadrut's sickness insurance fund.
Evidently, Yitzhak Rabin has understood the electorate's message We want work, hous ing. a pubie neate syste which stops going downhill, for our children... This will constrain the new covernment's choices in the budget.
This obviously won't resolve any of the real problems of lo racli society, but could bring about some improvement. Palestinian leaders welcomed the election results. Aren't they walking Into a trap? Talking. to Palestinian friends this morning made me think that they don't harbour too many illusions. If a possibility of change ap: pears, particularly around the question or settements, they are right to seize the op portunity.
Ine new government will make concessions, if only in response to American pressure. It will take various initÃatives on a diplomatic level and in the oc This will enable the Palesfinian leaders to regain a credibility which they had totally lost, due to the complete ab.
of results from the Washington negotiations and at the same time the deterioration of the situation in the West Bank and Gaza. This change will inevitably provoke a radicalisation towards the extreme right and among the colonists...' Yes, and the leaders of the extreme right reacted strong ly. But their results weren't good; only somet came out unscathed. You have to understand that the settlements becoming very he colonists are confronted With the tact that there is no more money to build new settle ments and that colonisation uts Israci in conflict with the which Rabin's cabinet probabsy won't be -could profit from this situation and offer hope to the population.
key commitment not to build any further settlements in the occupied territories, in its
Politicated this security with the promise of