SOCIALIST OUTLOOK goes to press at the end of a week which has been dominated by the slanging match over Labour's NHS broadcast. The truth about that is obvious; the Tories did everything possible to cause a scandal because they didn't want to face the real issues about the NHS.
That manoeuvre has blown up in their faces. Nothing seems capable of reviving their flagging campaign, despite the weakness and antiseptic vagueness of Kinnock's effort.
But none of the toing and froing in the election campaign - photo opportunities, tabloid press scandal and gossip, incessant discussions on the TV - should detract socialists trom the major underlying realities of the campaign.
First, after 13 years of the Tories, Britain faces an unparalleled economic crisis. whatever the result of the election the Tories have been gravely whichever government comes to power will be totally incapable of resolving the crisis. And this, given the likelihood of a minority government or one with a tiny majority, means a period of weak government.
Revelations in the Guardian have shown that this year's public borrowing figure of E28 billion is a fiction. In reality there is a government deficit of another E11.3 billion. This is the result of growing crisis.
The government's financial crisis stems from two things; the slump has drastically reduced the tax base, as taxable profits and earnings have fallen. Recession also means skyrocketing unemployment benefit and other welfare payments. Second, weakened. Third, I grant you 3 wishes ..as long as they fon't have anything to do with the NHS, poll ax. education, inflation environment, economy;
Any incoming government will face the consequences of this financial catastrophe. Kinnock has totally failed to explain how taxes on the rich will be kept minimal, and Labour's welfare and NHS pledges upheld.
At the time of writing, it is still possible, though unlikely, that the Tories could form the government. In that event, they would be in a totally different position to Thatcher in 1983 and 1987. It would be a very weak government staggering from crisis to crisis.
The Tories sustained themselves in the 1980s through a programme of privatisation which brought in huge revenues to the Exchequer. Now there is little left to privatise. The Tory programme has run out of steam. It has failed economically and has nothing new left to try to carry through.
We are therefore headed, whatever the election outcome, for a period of combined politiconfront this period? mitted to socialist policies. deals with the Liberals. MALACHLAN programme of Kinnock. gles herself. comes to powere zions - by a massive 8.4% in NW 'hames - with an overall increase of around 9,000 in one month. his is an annual rate of increase of over it remains to be seen if the Tory ruse has suoceeded in diverting atsection from this monumental failure.
But with Thatcher's market reforms treatening chaos, communisy care proposals looming that will rob the elderty of their savings, and plans afoot to axe 2,000 beds and two teaching hospitals in London after the election, if Labour screw up the chance to make the NHS a vote win. ner we all stand to lose cut.
If the Tories win, the opportunity will present itself, whatever the disappointment at not having a Labour government, to push home the counter-attack on Toryism, to rebuild the fight against the anti-union laws and other anti-working class measures, under the slogan of kicking out the Tories and replacing them with a Labour government comIf Labour is the largest party, then the left must demand it forms the government with no With Labour in government, whether it was a minority or majority government, the left would have to campaign around a programme of basic socialist demands, against the new realist It remains true that a Labour government will give the best conditions to rebuild strug and the left. But Labour is gravely weakened by the cautiousness of its programme and the hesitancy of its campaign.
But Labour majority or not, the election shows the tide is turning. This is the culmination of the defeat of Thatcherism begun by the anti-poll tax campaign and the fall of Thatcher Socialist Outlook has for the last two years argued that we were in a preparatory period, and that with the election the political scene would shift decisively. That is hard upon us. A rapid recomposition of British politics is underway. The key task is to build a socialist alternative capable of challenging whichever government ELSEWHERE IN Britain, commentators talk of the importance of the 'CZ vote. With London's higher wages, it is the "C' vote they are looking at. These are the people who earn more than S20,000 a year, and they are the most important social group in the eyes of the media. They are also the votes that Labour hope to swing to them. As we go to press, show that they may be doing just that. 21 of the import ant Tory marginals are in London - winning these coul win Labour the election. London is now a crisis-ridden mess. 45 per cent of Londoners say want to move out of the city. 49 per cent think their standard of living is worse since the abolition of the GLC in 1986. With housing, transport, law and order, and education topping the list of important issues for London, the creation of a new authority for the whole of the capital is a maior political issue. It is not just ordinary Londoners who want this. Sectons of the ruino class want it too. The tourism industry is a case in point. With the smashing of what little remained of London's manufacturing industry, tourism became a major earner for the cly. A quarter of a milion workers are found in a myriad of 'attractions' But it is in deep trouble now.For a healthy tourist industry you need good public transport ondon certainly does not have that. £10 billion a year is lost through conjested roads - the nightmare anakx scenano is rapay near Without public investment the future • No. 19 : April4.1992 : ~ Page 3