IT'S OFFICIAL. Britain is in the grip of the biggest recession this century, something which should, in all logic, ensure a Tory election defeat.
But poll after poll puts the two main rties level pegging, just weeks befo e general election. Ever since detaik opinion polls were started, the election campaignitself has never greatly altered the relative strengths of the parties.
Uniess sometlung changes quickly, the most likely outcome of the general election is a hung parliament. If that is indeed the outcome political developments will move rapidiv. The lett must arm itselt ta intervene in the political rishat would follow.
Disappointment
A hung parliament, let alone a Tory Victory, woula bea bis abappointment for the labour movement and for milnons sickenca by to years or toryist That there is now substantial doubt ly the responsibility of the Kinnock Kinnock's acceleting move to the rignt nas created a situaton wneremany voters see very little difference between Feb. 29, 1992 No. 17 all the main parties. This is also a conse quence of the Tories ditching Margaret Thatcher. If she had stayed, it is difficult to see how the Conservatives could have rebuilt their position.
But now with Major at the helm, and Kinnock's ultra-blandness as the main opposition, and in the absence of clear to traditional loyalties, or hunches about who would best manage the economy Even the kind of crusading generated by Harold Wilson in the 1964 section, although his policies were entirely pro-capitalist, escapes the dead hand of Kinnockism.
The situation in a hune partiament depends entirely on which party is the largest minority, and the attitude of the Liberal Democrats.
Liberal leader Paddy Ashdown wald demand le omplement electoral reform, some form of proportional representation, as the price of agreeing a coalition. If the Tories were the largest party, agreement on PR is dinnoc policies could be implemented. It would be a permanent obstacle to any pressure from the ranks of the labour movement on the new government.
minority Labour government time it could be brought down over a major issue, or a vote of no confidence.
Sut the Tories and Liberals know full well that the history is that minority governments rapidly brought down stand a good chance of re-election. Labour should insist, if it is the largest party, on forming the gotemment and carrying out its programme.
Undemocratic
None of this means Labour should reject proportional representation, but that should not be part of a coalition deal with the Liberals. system is outrageously undemocratic.
Theargumentagainst PR in the labour movement is entirely a pragmatic one, that PR would make the election of a Labour government very difficult, and rule out the possibility of progressive or left-wing legislation.
But to implement any meaningful oro-working class Toronms, copely u a period of acute capitalist crisis, re quires building a majority.
The idea that a left Labour government could sneak into power with a minority vote, and implement substantial left wing reforms is a non-starter. A Labour pledge to introduce electoral reform would seize the mantie of democracy from the Liberal Democrats.
If Labour were already piedged to PR its clection at this general election tould be assured. The actual implementation of PR would mark a major democratic opening in British politics, while also ensuring that for the foreseeable future a Tory of the two main parties is not just ir support, but its position as the party trade union bureaucracy. party which seems never able to -power has declining usefulness to & Block vote Now that merger between the All and BETPU looks certain, the grip off new realist right on the TUC deepened. Union leaders like ( Laird, Bill Jordan and Eric Hamm could easily back stronger links witht Liberal Democrats, and the ending of union block vote in the Labour Party, If Labour loses, the Liberal Demoa will go on a huge offensive, claiming bethe only party capable of becomir alternative government to the Ton Sections of the ruling class could s blood and try to deal Labour a knoda