The post-election campaign began in earnest on January 17 with a special debate between the four main parties on the constitutional future of Scotland.
Although only 2,500 attended, predominantiy nationalists, around 500,000 watched an hour-long TV summary. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNI) won the debate and Labour lost, while the Tories were battered but unbowed and the Liberals, as usual, pleasant but irrelevant.
I stress post-election campaign, because barring a total colfapse of the Labour vote, the outcome of the Scottish election is certain. Ladbrokes are - ing oxids for the number of Tory seats after the election - last week it was 14 to 1 for none, 5 to 2 (joint favourites) for 3 or 4 seats, and 66 to 1 for them retaining the present.
The Tory seats will be split between the other three parties, and very few are likely to changebetween Liberal, Labour and SNP. The SNP needs a swing of 20 per cent in Labour's most marginal two seats.
Superficially, this appears a low-key campaign, but it is like ly to be the last ever in the current constitutional framework. Quite simply, a Scottish parlia ment of some sort will be set up within the life of the next Westminster government. This will alter the shape of British politics.
This election will determine the options and strategies open in the post-clection period. In this situation, seats won is likely to be less important than votes and issues won The SNP and independence are the keys to the whole elec tion. The Nationalists are currently polling 23 per cent against Labour's 45 and the Tories' 22. entions they have scoreds per cent of the vote.
Because of the distribution of seats, it is quite possible for the SNI' to get 30 per cent of the poll, but no seats. However, the clear dynamic is that the Nationalists are taking Labour votes, while the Tories remain unchanged.
This reflects the shift in attitudes towards independence. While 85 per cent of Scots want constitutional change, this is only three per cent higher than at the last election. Basically, some Tories are changing their minds.
But within that, the propor tion favouring independence as against devolution has increased from around 25 per cent to 40 per cent. When asked to choose between the status quo and independence, 55 per cent chose independence. Polls also show that about half of Labour voters favour independence; they are being targeted by the SNP.
It is no accident that Labour's main campaign poster is A Scottish Parliament-Now' Nor do Scottish Labour leaders hide their dismay over the Walworth Road morons who put up posters around Scotland - the SNP couldn't have afforded it.
Labour knows that there is a ca-change in opinion, and are aising the profile of their pro Assembly stance. They are saying that only they can deliver a Scottish parliament.
That may be true for this elec tion. but the Tones are beginning to publicly debate devolution, so it may not be for long.
The 'Only Labour can deliver devolution' strategy attempts to marginalise independenceas an option. But with increasing supWhich way for socialists in the