new year. With the election just months away, it is certain that the economy cannot be turned around before polling day. The wave of bankruptcies is hitting sections of the Tories' middle class supporters.
Now the recession, combined with British membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, threatens to deliver interest rates rises, triggering higher mortgage payments. And the duration of the world economic recession means that there is no respite in sight. A last desperate hope is that Lamont can deliver tax cuts in the Budget.
In the light of all this, the wonder is not that the Tories are behind in the opinion polls but that they are still in contention. Confidence in the Tories may be rock bottom, but there are few expectations that a Kinnock government will solve the economic crisis or deliver higher living standards; indeed, since Labour makes no promises on this score, this is hardly surprising.
Despite the lack of widespread enthusiasm for Labour, the odds must now be that the game is up for John Major's team. Whatever the congenital hopelessness of Labour's nonalternative policies, a Labour victory in the general election is vital. There are two aspects to this. First, a Labour government would create a new mood in the working class - not a mood of widespread expectation of major reforms, but at least that the worst years of anti-working class attacks are over.
A further five-year term of Tory rule would BUSHED! A game of tennis was blamed as the reason for US President Bush's embarrassing colapse at a Tokyo dinner during his abortive Japanese tour. Many Americans later fainted when the rumour spread that Bush's chosen Vice President, Dan Quayle, might take over. redundancies and dustrial struggle and pessimism.
If Labour were to be defeated again it would mean a near two-decade period with Labour out of office, the best part of a generation.
In such a situation the credibility of Labour as a party of government would plummet. The usefulness of Labour to the trade union bureaucracy would sharply decline.
The opportunity would then be created for the Liberal Democrats to try to establish themNo laughing matter: Major faces defeat selves as the 'second' party, trying to marginalise Labour as a 'party of the past, and perhaps creating stronger relations with rightwing union leaders.
Of course, given the relative strength of the two parties a Labour defeat would not automatically lead to its replacement as the second party. But the danger would be there.
Paddy Ashdown is already staking out a claim to the political space to Labour's right. His rejection of the 'social chapter in the Maastricht agreement was very significant on Tories or Labour. sort of proportional representation. in government. would mean. Callaghan faced. Join Harrie AGM in June. order of the day. help Labour in this situation, and indeed is clearly prepared for a coalition with either the In the event of a 'hung parliament a ToryLiberal government is very unlikely however. The price would be electoral reform and some This the Tories, who see every chance of coming back as the majority party even if they lose this election, would never accept. Labour might, given their desperation to get a toe-hold The conclusions for socialists are stark. In a few months there will be an election, and everything possible has to be done to ensure Labour wins. But socialists will have to point out the reality of what a Labour government A new Labour government led by Kinnock would add to the litany of Wilson-Callaghantype right wing failures, but in conditions of much greater capitalist crisis than Wilson or The scene could then be set for further demoralisation and an alarming polarisation of British politics to the right. Discussion needs to take place now about how the left would respond to a Kinnock government. This must be a central concern of the Socialist Movement The building of a broad allance to tight tor key working class interests, such as the abolition of the anti-union laws, a massive reduction in defence expenditure and British withdrawal from Ireland, would be on the