Arias plan was signed, a bill granting the. contras $3.5 million in "humanitarian" aid has been pussed with strong bipartian support, and Reagan has asked Congress for a lurther $270 million in contra aid — the largeet amount so far. The aim is to support the contras white soying to ubtain maximum concessiuns frutn the Sandinistas
For their parr, the Nicaraguans have wolcomer die Arias plan as a victory Ir legitimises the government while denying legitimacy to The contras
Nicaragua's economy is in chaos — inlation in running at more than 700 per cent and rationing has been introduced un basic loodstufis, toorhpaste.
A coffee picker - the Nicaraguan coffee harvest has been damaged by contra killings of coffee pickers
Arias
plan:
peace in
Central
America?
petrol and so forth, The coffee harvesr hax heen damaged by contra killings of coffrer pickers, oudying arcas have Deen Jelt tntarmed because of the danger of attack and both industry and agriculture have suffered through the dralng of young people into the army. Seventy-five chuusand suldiers have to be led and paid every
Torernarionally, Nicaragua has become increasingly isolated West Germany, France, Spain and Iraly have ended the aid pingrammes they once had. Nicaragua has lost che option of' credit through its inability to repay the interest on loans.
The Soviet Union too bad been tightening the screws. Lastia recentlv wrote of purasitism, speculation and swindling in Nicaragua and the USSR was reluctant to fill the gap lefr by the suspension of Mexican and Venezuelan oil shipments.
Already, the Arias plan has resulted in economis
UPFRONT
assistance: the Sovier Union annonced un 7 September that it would supply 100,000 more tons of petroleum this ycar, Peru has agrocd lo sell Nicaragua 5,000 tons and Cuba will sell 40,000 tons.
The Nicaraguans hope thar the accord will allow the revolution a breathing space: a chance to overcome its cronenuc and political isolation, They are now pursuing a diplomatic war, moying far fasrer on implementing rhe accord ten cither El Salvador or Guarcmala.
Nicaragua has litted the ban un lie bourgoois daily La Prasc, re-opened Radio Catelica' (the voice of the conservative cathalic: hicrarchy), declared a unilateral ceaselire in throc zones, declared at annesty for all contras who turn. chemseives in, escablished over 100 local peace commissions, established rhe national recunciliation commission (beuded by arch reactionary Cardinal Obando v Brava) and repealed decrece 760 which allows for the confiscation of property of those outside the country for more than six months
They have refused some compromises however. The catholic hierarchy has called for the release from prison of the tour thousand guardsmen. and contras imprisoned since the revolution. In whar seems a popular move domestically the Sandinistas have so far refuser ro release the torturers, murderers and ramists used by Somoza and the US government to terrorise the workers and peasants of
Thr accord grants Jeginacy to all governments in power in the region, By secking to cut off outside aid, and to discredit 'irregular' forces, it coates the contras with thr FMLN in El Salvador and the URNG in Guatemala.
In Guatemala the civilian president, Cerezo, is attempring to use the accord as a cover for the continuing campaign to wipe out the URNG guerrilla forces: The URNG had previously called Jour times for negotiations,
and had been refused four titties.
More people (one hundred per month) currently 'disappear' in Guatemala under a civilian regime than under the junta in Chile. Despite the clection nf a civilian government, the military operutes as if it was still in power — and has not been held to account for any of the fifteen thousand deaths In the 1980-83 period when it officially ran the country.
In El Salvador the FMIN/FDR have been calling for negotiations with the Duarte regime for some time now: The dipiomatic offensive of the FMLN/FOR around the proposal for a government of broad participation' (GAP) corresponds to the exhaustion of the masses with a war which has claimed sixty thousand lives. It has been used to help rebuild mass organisation and miss struggle. A wave of labour struggles is now sweeping El Salvador.
Duarte's signing of the accord is both a response to the pressure brought by the diplomatic offensive of the EMLN and the mass mobilisations that have emerged in this context: He will attempr in use the accord recognition of his regime and discredit the FMLN/FDR
The FMLN/FDR, in response co the accord, have said they will step up the struggle. They welcomed the accord as a means of forcing the Duarte regime to negotiate but have said they will not lay down. their arms to do so. On 4 October a meeting took place between the Salvadorean government and the EMEN/FDR As a result an eight person ceasefire commission - comprising four government and four guerrilla representatives — was cstablished. Over four thousand refugees have since returned to El Salvador from
The Guatemalan accord represents an opportunity for the Sandiniseas, but, insofar as it cquates the contras with the FMLN and URNG, It presents grave risks for the struggies in El Salvador and Guatemala, and therefore in the long tun for Nicaragua incIf.
While defending the right of Nicaragua to pursue any measures necessary for its survival, socialists must also defend the FMLN In El IN LESS THAN two years since President Cury Aquino was swept to power in the Philippines on a wave of popular rebellion that ended the Marcos dicratorship, ber government is virtually held hostage by the military.
The scene looks ser for a final coup. In August this year Cory Aquino survived the most serious coup attempt of her presidency. But che price she paid for the support of the generals who, belatedly, came dismissal of her closest cabinet advisors (the remaining "progressives") in favour of hard-liners. Now the military officers have lightened their grip on the regime, a move also applauded by many in the
The mass movement that rose up against ex-president Marcos hot only wanted co oust him: it bad illusions in Aquino. As late as May 1987, her success in the legislarive elections showed that she still enjoyed considerable personal popularity with a peuple on the rebound from the horrors of a 14 year dictatorship: Tlowever, the built-in contradictions between her mass base and her bourgeois politics are now coming home
From the outset Gory: Aquino's government has courted the Americans. Ar the same time it has sought to maintain the lovalty of the constitutionalist wing of the army under chief of staff, Fidel Ramas, in order to counter the growing influence of military leaders of the extreme supplied the generals with new weapons to wage "total war" on the guerrillas of the communist-led New People's Army (NPA). During her presidency, leaders of the
Salvador and the URNG in Guatemala against any arracks -- diplomatic, ссолотс, ог: military — brought about as a result of the accord.
Within the solidarity movement socialists should