smokescreen hides Poll Tax failure One extremely positive aspect of the Gulf war as far as the Tory leadership is concerned is that it distracts attention from the Poll Tax crisis. Michael Heseltine's announcement of next year's figures had scarcely any attention in the media — which was a relief to the man who provoked Thatchers downfall on the basis of a radical rethink but has so far delivered nothing. amount of extra money that can be put into the poll tax budget. At one level, of course, this is extra spending on the war, their economic and political room for manouevre on the tax was will become more and more difficult to hold the line. At the same time, mass non-payment con- It is clear that the average poll tax bill will be around £400 and that is after substantial cuts in many places. Many people will be faced with an increased poll tax bill and severe erduction in local services through cuts. In Strathclyde, next years poll tax is around £440, an increase of 27%, and cuts of £75 million are also being proposed. Lothian's bills will be £584, an increase labour movement is the primary task for all socialists at the moment, at the same time it is im- portant to continue to build the anti-poll tax movement. The national demonstration on March 23rd, timed to coincide with the setting of local poll tax levels, has the potential to be enour- hated poll tax took place. The police mounted a vicious assault on the demonstration and mass least serious charges. So far, 4 people are currently serving prison sentences (all 2 years) and one person is still on remand and many have received, and served, much shorter terms. It is ex- tremely likely that most of those still to be processed will receive pretty hefty prison sentences — although one important acquittal has taken place in a case where the police evidence had just The Trafalgar Square Defence Campaign, set up after the 31 March demonstration, has en- sured that each court case has been monitored, organised pickets outside many and fed informa- There have often been tensions between the TSDC and particularly the leadership of the All- Britain Anti-Poll Tax Federation, but the TSDC now has an impressive list of sponsors now, both from the anti-poll tax movement itself and also from across the labour movement as a It is always difficult to make sure that those who are victmised for participating in collective action — be it demonstrations or strikes or other protests — are not isolated from the movement by the way that the state punishes them, that they receive our full support. But it is vital that the anti-poll tax movement and the broader labour movement takes this responsiblity seriously.
At present wages are rising at 10% a year and, as investment is curtailed, productivity is falling. Unit labour costs are now rising by more than 12%. Manufacturing costs can only be kept down by keeping down real wages. Maintaining ERM parity means years of low growth and a massive attack on working class living standards, irrespective of the present recession.
Recession is goverment policy - it is the Tories only known cure for the "hangover" from the expansionary period of the Thatcher years from which they have learnt nothing. As Major said in his first speech as Chancellor, "If it isn't hurting, it isn't working." The question is whether a full scale slump can be avoided - it was the retum to the Gold Standard in 1931 which precipitated the Great Slump. It was the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate due to high North Sea oil output which wreaked havoc on manufacturing output in the carly 1980s. Maintaining ERM parity could have a similar effect this time round. Major and Lamont have clearly decided to avoid devaluation at all costs. Rapidly increasing unemployment is again being used as the main device to discipline the working class and control inflation.
For the working class and labour movement conditions are bound to become more difficult - rising unemployment always weakens the ability of working class to strug gle at the economic level. The institutionalisation of high unemployment and massive redistribution from poor to rich in the 1980s meant that the living standards of the poorest 20 percent stayed static; now increasing levels of mass poverty are a certainty.
Meanwhile the international banking system is in its worst shape since the 1930s. The situation is potentially much worse in Japan than the USA. Not only has the Japanese stock market collapsed but the stupendous Japanese land values (The Japanese Imperial Palace is on paper worth more then California) are going soft. Japanese banks are now by far the most powerful of the world's financial institutions, but around 30% of their loans are tied up in domestic property, and they have had to rapidly raise their provision for writing off bad loans and have cutback sharply on their level of lending - the main source of liquidity in international financial markets. If any collapse, the withdrawal of Japanese capital from the interational banking system could have a catastrophic impact.
Lastly, if the Gulf War brings a hike in the oil price, this would have an at present un quantifiable impact on prices and output. With the world economy in such a fragile condition the potential for fully fledged depression is high. Westem politicians would then no doubt offload blame onto the Iraqi regime - we easily could be looking forward to the "Saddam slump' - indeed the Tories already seem to be desperately looking to the Gulf for an alibi. SOCIALIST OUTLOOK no 30, February 1991
FEATURES Heseltine has dellvered nothing actually true — the war is costing a fortune patriotic effort of 'our boys" in the Gulf, this is a useful excuse for the Tories. very limited. tinues to hold firm, and when next year's enormous bills actually start to come through shaken from this angle, as well as assaulted by the anti-war movement. of 35% - hardly likley to do much for the Tories popularity. mous. Lets make sure it is. arrests resulted. one hole too many in it for the magistrate. tion back into the anti-poll tax movement. whole.
Graeme Cookson Further than that, they are able to argue that the cost of the war effort severely limits the
-and at the minute with public opinion behind the But they are treading an extremely precarious tightrope. The fact is that even without the And as the war continues, and British and allied casualities in the Gulf rise dramtically, it people's doors, the poll tax movement will reap the benefit and Major's popularity will be While building the anti-war movement and taking the fight against jingoism deep into the
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