The outcome of the war in Bosnia will affect the development of the Balkans. A victory of those who wish to carve up Bosnia amongst different national and ethnic groups will strengthen reactionary nationalism in all its manifestations. The surest way to guarantee a rise in support for Islamic fundamentalism - currently small - is the destruction of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Conversely, a victory for the Bosnian resistance - composed primarily of Muslims but also including Croats and Serbs - will strengthen all those forces throughout ex-Yugoslavia who oppose ethnically pure states. In particular, because it is in the major cities where multinational defence forces are strongest (Sarajevo - where 50,000 Serbs and 30,000 Croats remain - and, particularly, Tuzla) then the possibility of independent working class action will be strengthened by the victory of the resistance. That is why we are for the right of Bosnia to exist as a multi-national state. We are for the defence of Bosnia both against the armed attacks of the Serb Cetniks (backed up by the Yugoslav army) and of the Croatian HVO and against imperialist plans to carve it up. The Vance-Owen plan - by dividing up Bosnia into so-called 'autonomous regions' based on the domination of one nationality - legitimated the 'ethnic cleansing* of Karadzic and encouraged his Croatian counter-part, Mate Boban, along the same road. The current plan for 'safe havens' has, in essence, the same effect.
Whilst Milosevic has made some criticisms of the referendum amongst Bosnian Serbs - thereby rapidly re-ingratiating himself with imperialism - the 96% vote against the Vance-Owen plan shows the strength of reactionary Serbian nationalism. He has been able to ride out the challenge from the ultra-right wing Cetnik leader Vojislav Seselj with his power base amongst the Serbs of occupied Kosova, but only by entering an alliance with the equally despicable Arkan. Defeat for a multi-ethnic Bosnia will encourage Serb nationalists to make further attacks - on Macedonia and Kosova.
The position of "Arm the Bosnian resistance" is totally correct - not only because arms are an absolute necessity for the Bosnian resistance to survive, but because we recognise that there are still multi-ethnic forces that reject the logic of 'ethnic cleansing' and wish to preserve a state in which all the Bosnian people can live together. (Socialist Organiser are wrong when they raise the slogan "Arm the Muslims" because they ignore those Serbs and Croats who fight alongside Bosnian Muslims to preserve the unity of Bosnia). Approximately 10% of the Bosnian resistance are non-Muslims. Their families are increasingly being used by Serb and Croat forces as hostages to try to coerce them into deserting.
We are correct to oppose UN intervention. Not simply for all the usual arguments about the UN being a tool of imperialism but also because we are in favour of self-determination. Self-determination cannot be imposed from outside: it can only be achieved by the armed Bosnian
people themselves. Armed interventions by outside forces eventually only aid reaction.
Moreover, implicit in the calls from some in the Labour movement (such as Ken Livingstone) for UN intervention is the notion that the Bosnian people are incapable of defending themselves and resolving their problems themselves. Al best this is condescending: at worst it legitimates the wide-spread, essentially racist notions about "barbaric" Slavs who always have, and always will, attempt to murder one another.
We have to take a similar attitude to 'humanitarian 1 aid.(13) We are, of course, in favour of it but we argue that the best way to distribute aid is through the Bosnian resistance - who will need to be armed to be able to do so. There is nothing "humanitarian" about keeping people alive for one day if the likelihood is that they will be shot the next. It is yet another cynical exercise in attempting to appear to be doing something to quieten public discontent.
In fact the real role of the UNPROFOR troops has been to give tacit backing to Milosevic and Karadzic - whether by helping to hand over Srebenica (the most publicised example. but also other towns in eastern Bosnia such as Cerska and Zepa) to Serbian control, or by refusing to help wounded Bosnians. Over 20 Bosnians died, for example, during the evacuation of Srebenica as a result of being "forgotten by" or "falling from" UN vehicles. Indeed Serb forces are able to move new weapons and units into position in front of UNPROFOR observers.(14) Although the Bosnian army has had considerable success against the HVO and liberated some territory Serb forces are stepping up attacks on Sarajevo and Tuzla.