MAKE your mind up time is approaching for Tony Blair and the Labour leadership over European Monetary Union(EMU).
Since the election Labour has continued to sit on the fence parroting their pre-election blurb: 'we will take a decision on EMU at the time and in line with Britain's economic interest.' This has always had more to do with electoral tactics than either the political realities of European integration or the logic of Labour's stance on Europe - which is full support for the EU and for further integration.
Joining EMU is a political decision and it is not rational politics to be in favour of the EU and further integration but to equivocate on entry into the first round of EMU.
Britain could pay a heavy price for staying outside the powerful Ecu zone which will be established once the first round of the single currency goes ahead.
There is little doubt that the Single Currency will go ahead as planned on January | 1999. Key European governments which have been struggling to meet the convergence criteria as laid out in the Maastricht Treaty are now exthe fight against austerity in Europe. super-state across Europe pected to qualify on time for the first round. The most important of these is Germany, whose latest projection is that it will meet the 3 per cent of GDP criteria in time for the first round. This has been achieved by a combination of economic upturn and by excluding the health service debt from the public sector borrowing requirement - on the basis that most of it is privately incurred. Italy, one of the weakest potential members of the first round, also expects to comply - after imposing a specific tax designed to reduce government debt. Italy is now close to the 3 per Still available The Socialist Outlook pamphlet setting out all you need to know on the background to the Euro-marches and * The bosses' strategy for a single currency and a * Why Maastricht is driving a tresh offensive against jobs, living standards and welfare rights * How workers are fighting back * A socialist answer All in easy-to-read A4 format, for just £1.20 inc postage from Socialist Outlook, PO Box 1109, London N4 2UU cent and expects to reach it by the end of the year. The current prospect is that at least half a dozen other countries, including France, will meet the Maastricht criteria -creating a situation where up to eight member states could qualify for the first round.
Britain will have to decide whether to apply by the end of this year. The final list for the first round will be decided at a meeting of governments, presided over by the British presidency.
In a move which pushes the whole project forward, European finance ministers have now decided to lock together the exchange rates of those countries who go into the first round, from that meeting in May 1998 - seven months in advance of EMU. From that point onwards EMU will effectively be in place.
The recent call by Gordon Brown for a national debate on the single currency is the clearest sign yet that the policy from the election is under serious review.
Such a debate however will give the best opportunity for the left to put forward an internationalist opposition to this single currency. It is an opportunity that should be seized with both hands.
Labour, like the Tories, have been doing the things necessary for the single currency ever since they came to office - keeping public spending down, with all its consequences. In addition they have effectively privatised the Bank of England, which is a partial step to wards the requirements of EMU -an independent central bank to run the system.
Whether Blair will opt for the first round is difficult to say, but the pressure from business not to be sidelined is already very strong. His main problem is his commitment to a referendum. To go into the first round would require a referendum before May 98 - and it may be difficult to do that and to win it.
There is talk of Britain having a special arrangement - not joining the first round but being allowed to join soon afterwards. That is also difficult, since it would require a decision in principle to join, and that in itself - if Blair is to keep to election promises - would need a referendum before June 98.
The message for those opposed to the single currency, however, is clear enough. Blair will take Britain in. at one point or another - and it may well be into the first round. This means we have to be ready to mount the most effective 'No' campaign possible as soon as a referendum becomes imminent.
Blair's "New Britain" is to be run by the old bosses, demanding ever more "Hexibility" from an increasingly insecure workforce.
LABOUR I' not influence in Labour Party debates, relying on the good will of Blair wins in Brighton, the fight is to force Labour to recognise
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