For those with seasoned memories the Stormont Agreement has some of the look and feel of the 1974 Sunningdale agreement about it.
Then an incoming Labour government inherited an incomplete political settlement from the Tories. They faced a similar problem to the present one – selling the deal to the unionists.
The main Unionist party was led by Brain Faulkner. Shortly after he had agreed to the Sunningdale package, Faulkner’s Official Unionist Party split. Today six out of Trimble’s ten elected MPs have already positioned themselves closer to the ‘No’ camp than the ‘Yes’ camp.
Towards the end of 1973 Faulkner, supported by the SDLP and the Alliance, formed an Executive to take control of some of the main departments of government.
Within six months the bulk of Faulkner’s party had deserted him, forming an alliance with Paisley and Craig to smash the Executive and the agreement. After a ten-day loyalist strike in May 1974 Faulkner and his dwindling band of supporters resigned. All talk of a lasting political settlement was finished with – until now that is.
Commenting on the new mood of triumph sweeping over the nationalist SDLP, one journalist wryly observed "It’s because they’re all so old, this is back to the Future for them, a chance to recapture a lost youth. It’s as if there has been one big hiatus between 1974 and now until they could get back in."
The leaders of the SDLP, Hume and Mallon believe this time it is going to be different. Back in 74, the IRA were against the deal. They stepped up their bombing campaign to try and destroy it. The IRA onslaught greatly aided the Unionist hard right opposition, organised under the umbrella of the United Ulster Unionist Council.
But today’s process has been memorably described by Mallon as a ‘Sunningdale for slow learners.’ The SDLP belief is that this time the deal will stand because the republicans now realise that they have wasted the best part of twenty four years chasing the unattainable – the mythical Irish republic.
With the IRA now in on the deal, Paisley and the sectarian loyal orders now lining up in the ‘No’ camp will have little to frighten the ordinary unionists with. Trimble will not be as vulnerable as Faulkner once was to the unionist wreckers, and the settlement will proceed.
The SDLP is confident that this time the deal is going to stick. The nationalists, led by themselves, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein are going to deliver an overwhelming ‘yes’ vote, and a majority of unionists are going to follow the leadership of Trimble. Paisley and the rest will be lucky to muster twenty per cent of the vote.
Hume’s analysis of the Irish problem and the way towards a solution will be vindicated. Award that man a Nobel prize.
The SDLP’s optimistic scenario seems plausible. Trimble has a lot of things going for him that Faulkner lacked – including the deal itself.
Ed Maloney, the chief political journalist of the Sunday Tribune newspaper has christened the next deal "Sunningdale minus", referring to the fact that Trimble has been handed a more solid pro-unionist deal than Faulkner was granted. The cross-border Council of Ireland is much less threatening to the unionists than the 1974 one was.
The unionist-inspired ‘consent rule’ is everywhere. It is mentioned about seven times on the first page of the Agreement. The Irish constitution is even to be changed to include the unionist consent rule.
Trimble is in a stronger position this time around for other reasons. He has the support of most of the loyalist military-political organisations . They played a key role in ensuring a victory for Paisley the last time out.
He can point to the fact that the ‘No’ camp have no alternative political settlement to offer. But best of all be can justly point out how little Sinn Fein gained from what was supposed to be their peace process.
So the likelihood is that the SDLP are right and the referendum will be passed.
The watchword for us must be ‘don t panic’. A big ‘yes’ vote for this deal would be a setback, but would not signal the end of the affair. The weakness of this deal is that its success depends on pretence and false hopes.
It is based on the idea that Trimble has somehow transformed himself and his party into something called moderate unionists i.e. people who sincerely wish to share power with nationalists.
This is utter nonsense. Trimble went all the way with Paisley and Craig in 1974, and he hasn’t changed. He has just become more astute. He came to prominence as the hero of Drumcree.
His difference with Paisley is over tactics. He recognises that if unionism it is to succeed it needs to take account of the needs and interests of both the British government and the frustrated local business class. Paisley wrongly believes that the unionists can just do their own sectarian thing and ignore the rest of the world.
Trimble has adapted his tactics to meet some of the concerns of Blair and others: but he has no intention of conceding anything of worth to the working class nationalists represented by Sinn Fein and only as little as possible to the SDLP.
Finally we have the false hope. Sinn Fein encouraged such a charge of expectation on the way to the making of this agreement that they were in no position to turn their backs on it at the last moment. But the political reality of the deal is that it is a near disaster for genuine republicans.
Behind the smiles of Sinn Fein lies fear – the fear that there is so little in this deal to satisfy the high hopes of their ‘constituency of struggle’. For now what is saving the deal in the eyes of most working class republicans is the prospect of escaping from the horrors of the ‘long war’ and the expectation of prisoner releases.
But once Trimble takes to parading himself as the new Orange Prime Minister, the mood will begin to change, and questions will begin to be asked of Sinn Fein. For now the SDLP can have their moment of triumph.