In 34 years since independence Nigeria has had 24 years of military rule. And it looks like the present incumbent's days are numbered.
The election in June 1993 was generally believed to have been won by chief Moshood Abiola. After it was bureaucratically annulled General Sani Abacha was able to take advantage of the ensuing political crisis and impose himself on the country.
As well as sanctioning the killing of hundreds of civilians by the police and army he has banned newspapers and taken over the running of the courts. Despite a desperate search for a consistent policy and political base Abacha has succeeded only in making hites worse.
The economic crisis now threatens to engulf the regime. Huge debts to the "Paris Club" of creditors, pressure from the IMF and the US ban on official finance stoke the flames of the growing social crisis.
After taking power Abacha sought popular support by moring against market reforms, snubbing the west and promoting state control. The 1986 structural adjustment programme of General Ibrahim Babangida was discredited by growing discrepancies in income, rising inflation and the currency's collapse.
Fourteen months later, at the beginning of 1995, Abacha's policy was forced into reverse. January's budget announced big reductions in the deficit, lifting restrictions on foreign investment and liberalising exchange rates -things very close to the very same policy that had failed under previous administrations.
Despite the declaration of a war of austerity on Nigeria's people big business still want more.
The Financial Times spoke in the paternalistic tone of multi-national capitalism: "like a parole board examining a hardened offender, those who know the record of past Nigerian governments over the past decade are asking whether it is too late for the administration's character to change even if it has the will".
There is a growing tendency to disinvestment. Wellcome, ICI and the pharmaceutical group Hoechst are all withdrawing. In January Volkswagen closed its plant outside Lagos. Texico's 60 per cent stake in Texico Nigeria has been up for sale since 1993 joint ventures are the main form of ownership in the crucial gas and oil industries).
The government has been increasingly unable to pay its share of the operating costs to its oil company partners - in large part because it has the substantial problem of a $30 billion external debt hanging over it.
The banks are starting to demand risk premiums on debt repayments. This means that the government is having to borrow more money for the sole purpose of borrowing money.
Shell, Mobil and Chevron are taking the opportunity to pile on the pressure for takeover under the threat of further investment withdrawals and a reduction in productive capacity. They are also demanding a lessening of the role of the Central bank of Nigeria in regulating foreign exchange.
Corruption and mismanagement threaten to make the civil service and judicial process inoperative. Millions of dollars of oil revenue are routinely diverted into the pockets of officials. The institutions of civil society are deteriorating beyond salvage.
The infrastructure is falling into disrepair. Roads are crumbling. Trains rarely run. Electricity and water are in short supply. Fuel is scarce.
On top of Abacha's social and economic policy crisis the demand for a return to civilian rule continues to grow. His recent promotion of 32 generals would indicate that he has a different idea about Nigeria's future. Laughing all the way to the tank: Vickers chief executive Sir Colin Chandler finds Nigerian repression terribly profitable. Sir Colin was Margaret Thatcher's head of Defence Export Services Organisation at the Ministry of Defence. Lord Nolan, where are you?